Manifold | The largest prediction market platform \ stacker news ~oracle

Manifold | The largest prediction market platform manifold.markets

1707 sats \ 39 comments \ @TonyGiorgio 6 Dec 2023 oracle

What do you all think of this? Looks like decent UX, though didn't try it since it has a lot in with Google option only.

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1534 sats \ 5 replies \ @dk 6 Dec 2023

I was thinking a prediction market might be a fun territory. Tough to run a proper order book on SN, but prob could figure out bid/ask spreads in conversation and bootstrap a liquidity/fun. If you want to make it, I'll join! 🙋‍♂️

1015 sats \ 4 replies \ @TonyGiorgio OP 6 Dec 2023

An SN bot that comments on user comments could do a lot of the heavy lifting. The OP could be the prediction topic, then users can reply "!bet 100 sats 50% yes" then subcomment, wait for user to fund the bot, then wait for another user to subcomment taking the other position, etc.

504 sats \ 3 replies \ @dk 6 Dec 2023

this is a good idea!

147 sats \ 2 replies \ @ek 6 Dec 2023

I think I could work on something like this at some point :)

But really need to shift priorities to other stuff at the moment...

But what @TonyGiorgio has written sounds simple enough for a "bot MVP" ... Shouldn't take too long right? Right? haha. It's "just" missing market settlement!

And this territory here is supposed to be the one for prediction markets! :)

833 sats \ 1 reply \ @TonyGiorgio OP 6 Dec 2023

You could also tag and elect an SN user as the Oracle (either in OP, or the OP) to comment the end results and then the bot does the settlement.

Though highly illegal and surely @k00b takes on a lot of risk and may have to shut it down.

Unless he never has custody of the funds or it's through a 3rd party federation.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 6 Dec 2023

Though highly illegal and surely @k00b takes on a lot of risk and may have to shut it down. Unless he never has custody of the funds or it's through a 3rd party federation.

Yeah, that's the part I'm never sure if even mentioning it already has potential downsides in the future, hehe 😅

I should really stop getting SN into seriously more trouble than it might already be in, lol

Also part of the reason why DM (delphi.market) is a separate project; "not associated with SN in any way". Except through me.

11 sats \ 0 replies \ @itsTomekK 13 Dec 2023

Yes, I'm playing there a lot being one of their most active creator, also running some bitcoin related markets, like here: https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK?q=bitcoin&s=most-popular&f=all&ct=ALL&tab=questions

Superb UX, it's also open-source, so let's fork it but implement sats instead of Mana

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 6 Dec 2023

currently busy fixing my spotty internet, will check out when i have more time!

thanks for the link, didn't know about that market.

i think i need to do more research about what already exists in this PM space anyway if i want to step my level of committment up.

And I should stop feeling some kind of sadness to see other PMs up and running, lol

0 sats \ 30 replies \ @DarthCoin 6 Dec 2023

To predict what? That the people are dumb? I will never use my sats for gambling.

978 sats \ 29 replies \ @TonyGiorgio OP 6 Dec 2023

Then you're in the wrong sub.

0 sats \ 28 replies \ @DarthCoin 6 Dec 2023

yes you are right. I am in the sub for retards gambling their sats

0 sats \ 27 replies \ @ek 6 Dec 2023

in some sense, you're predicting all the time that bitcoin will win and you're using your sats to "gamble" on that :)

0 sats \ 26 replies \ @DarthCoin 6 Dec 2023

literally happened...

325 sats \ 25 replies \ @ek 6 Dec 2023

You've given me a feature idea: ban users from a territory, lol

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @DarthCoin 6 Dec 2023

I was prpposing this long before the territories were a thing... But yeah... Darth is too crazy to be considered...