When it comes to calling the market, I get it wrong more than I get it right. That’s the difference between writing essays and investing. My Bitcoin $25,000 to $27,000 and Ether $1,700 to $,1800 bottom range proved to be extremely optimistic. Oh well…

Babysitting my Bitcoin … I ain’t about dat life no more.

The US CPI for May hit a fresh 40-year high of 8.6% YoY. The politics dictate that the Fed must go larger and longer with rate hikes. We saw that yesterday with a historic 75bps hike by the Fed. I suspect that the political pressure for the Fed to be perceived as fighting inflation won’t let up until after the November US midterm elections. At which point, it becomes a fight for the 2024 presidential election. The democrats will most likely lose the House of Representatives and the Senate, which creates a lame duck 2-year stint for the Biden administration. Nothing will get passed, and all political energy will be focused on what narratives play well to voters in 2024.

The number one thing that American voters care about is their personal finances. Juicy the markets, both employment and financial, will win votes. The easiest way to accomplish both of these goals is printing money. While the long term effects are deleterious, that’s the next administration’s problem. Therefore watch how quickly the Biden administration pivots in its messaging. From “the Fed must tackle inflation” to “the Fed must ease financial conditions so that American jobs can be created”. With POTUS at his back, the Fed can get back to business as usual … money printing.

The fiat liquidity situation will be brutal for the next 6 to 12 months.