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Your title suggests that the phrase "not your keys not your coins" is outdated. I think that's another way of saying it's not true anymore. Is that what you mean?
I think it is still true. If I don't have the keys and someone else does, whoever that is can spend the money without my consent. I have no say. If I don't control the money and don't even have a veto on what happens to it, in what sense are the coins mine? To me, they aren't mine. They belong to whoever can spend them, and that's not me.
Some custodial services let you request that the money be sent somewhere. But "ability to request" is not control. Therefore I think the saying is not outdated, it's still true. If you don't have the keys, they are not your coins.
Title is a little misleading (on purpose, I shoud say). I agree on what you said.
Moreover, I'm thinking about the onboarding of new users into a few years: onchain is already prohibitive for some users and use cases, sovraign L2 solutions are ok, but still an onchain settlement and transaction has to take place. L3 solutions are mostly custodial. Will a new user be forced to use bitcoin custodially in the future because no other means are available?
For some situations im third world countries it's allready the case..if I save 30 bucks a month I'm not willing to spend them on fees, am I?
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