Just one anecdote, but I spoke with someone recently who doesn't want to hold bitcoin because there is no "insurance". They want there to be a fallback/backup plan and someone to be able to help out when things to south. This person was specifically wanting for the government to be the backstop. Presumably, this person sees government as a trustworthy-enough societal coordination mechanism, probably based on personal experience (Others may obviously not see government the same way).
Whether people are capable or not really depends on what tools we, as builders, build for them. Generally, I think we should assume that people are smarter than we think.
Some people are smarter than we think, but a pretty good number are pretty darned dumb. Even if they are savvy enough to manage their own money in direct custody, do they want to?
I guess I'm still a maxi in a sense, I'm just very skeptical that most or even many people will self-custody bitcoin itself. I think something like "banks" will exist to hold our bitcoin, insure it, give us interest on it, and provide a convenient way to spend. And anything resembling a bank will be regulated by government, which means transactional oversight and power to stop transactions or entirely "un-bank" individuals.
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I think more people will do so that we might think, but it might be a generational change and not something that happens in a few years.
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