Is United States geographically destined to win? \ stacker news ~earth

Is United States geographically destined to win?

2997 sats \ 55 comments \ @brandonsbytes 24 Jan earth

I listened to two of Peter Zeihan’s books recently, and I really found them interesting. He seems to postulate a kind of geographic determinism. Particularly, America being the land of plenty and being protected on both sides by massive oceans. And if America falls, it really will need to be from within. I feel like it can’t be that simple to explain the United States success, and I know he isn’t saying it’s the only thing. But, I cannot come up with any good argument against his main idea which is that geography doesn’t determine every detail of success and failure, but on the global stage it determines a nations destiny pretty heavily.

anyone have thoughts for or against?

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248 sats \ 3 replies \ @siggy47 24 Jan

When you say America you mean the US, I assume. Mexico, Canada, Central and South America would seem to have the same geographic advantages, no? Australia would seem to also have that advantage.

149 sats \ 2 replies \ @brandonsbytes OP 24 Jan

fixed the title. i should have known better. my columbia coworker gets on me all the time when i generically refer to “america”. it’s very 🇺🇸 American of me to do that 😬

97 sats \ 1 reply \ @siggy47 24 Jan

I do it all the time too.

82 sats \ 0 replies \ @0245bdaef2 24 Jan

If Americans were smart they’d all work together (North, Central, and South). The best way to protect yourself is to ensure your neighbors are also protected and the best way to succeed is to ensure your neighbors do, too.

175 sats \ 0 replies \ @chairman_pretense 24 Jan

I buy Zeihan's broad macro thesis.

However, his specific local political analysis is tissue paper thin -- his comments on the local politics of the country I live were wildly poorly reasoned and didn't seem based on any primary sources.

America can falter on the world stage, particularly in its ability to project and maintain global power. All empires end up over stretched and unable to flex on all fronts, we see this right now with the US struggling to maintain arms shipments to Ukraine at the same time as mobilise forces in the Red Sea. If China were to make a move on Taiwan the US would be unable to support them.

But domestically it will always have the abundance of resources and population base to thrive.

350 sats \ 10 replies \ @kepford 24 Jan

The question isn't dumb but Peter Zeihan... I find him very suspect.

Remember this appearance on Rogan?

There are plenty of intelligent people that don't get bitcoin but the smugness and certainty of this guy rubs me the wrong way. Even before I heard his take on bitcoin my alarms went off while listening to him talk. He sounds like a bullshit artist if I have ever heard one.

The most compelling argument I have heard for US dominance is a combo of factors.

Virgin land full of resources
largely free markets before world wars
Isolation from the wars of Europe
Late entry into WW2 lead to the US being the least affected so comes out on top

146 sats \ 0 replies \ @birdeye21 24 Jan

that confident dismissive attitude is among one of the worst to experience in person. Impossible to talk with these people..

And to the arguments shared, it will be interesting/scary to see, with tech development since ww1/2, how "isolated" may be a less important factor in modern war. One swift strike to our communication satellites can quickly involve every citizen in the country/world. Our interconnectedness and reliance on global commerce, seems to make it so things can get uglier faster..hopefully i am wrong

114 sats \ 7 replies \ @brandonsbytes OP 24 Jan

oh, i hadn’t heard him talk. ha, he does come off smug. his writing is definitely smug, but for some reason reading smugness doesn’t rub me the wrong way, but hearing and seeing it does.

one interesting point he does make, that could add to your list. he says global trade has only been possible because the US Navy is in every sea to ensure safe travel of goods. I don’t know if that necessarily just helps the US, more of a global win.

148 sats \ 5 replies \ @_stacktoshi 24 Jan

smug is a gross understatement. I've never seen someone so condescending and arrogant talking about complex topics such as geopolitics. He should stay in his lane when it comes to economics.

213 sats \ 4 replies \ @kepford 24 Jan

There is no amount of intelligence that can't be overpowered by arrogance.

21 sats \ 3 replies \ @0fje0 24 Jan

There is no amount of intelligence that can't be overpowered by arrogance

Definitely stealing this.

161 sats \ 2 replies \ @kepford 24 Jan

Inspired by Proverbs 16:18 and observed over many years. When we start to think to highly of ourselves we become very vulnerable to mistakes.

I've seen this in myself and in people much smarter than me.

33 sats \ 0 replies \ @brandonsbytes OP 24 Jan

Job 12:23-25 also comes to mind.

31 sats \ 0 replies \ @Kaffi 25 Jan

I saw it in myself in 2022 I was on top of the world and telling everyone to buy bitcoin. I still believe in bitcoin but i am NEVER suggesting it again, it took years for them to stop sending me articles about how bitcoin sucks.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 24 Jan

US dominance of the sea does help the US but I think you are right.

105 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 24 Jan

A quick search explains a lot about this dude for me at least. He was the Vice President of Analysis at Stratfor. He's a paid shill. Now runs his own firm for the same type of global corps. Who knows why he is pushing this stuff he says.

Just be aware.

140 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 24 Jan

Geography is destiny (to a large degree at least).

Landlocked places are much poorer than those with ocean access, for instance. Being between places rather than out of the way is important. Natural defenses or defensible positions reduce costs of invasion.

There are lots of things that can be naturally provided that are costly for people who don't get them for free. Those costs are a relative drag on their economies and persistently reduce the standard of living.

406 sats \ 1 reply \ @nullama 24 Jan

Landlocked places are much poorer than those with ocean access

Liechtenstein is a doubly landlocked country and they have the second highest GDP per person in the world.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 24 Jan

Small countries can get lots of mileage out of jurisdictional arbitrage. If Liechtenstein weren't surrounded by big countries with unfavorable corporate tax and regulatory regimes, I doubt they'd rank so high in GDP per capita.

120 sats \ 1 reply \ @SatsCats 24 Jan

You might be interested in Tim Marshall's book: Prisoners of Geography

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr 24 Jan

looks interesting!

74 sats \ 7 replies \ @grayruby 24 Jan

It definitely has advantages but destined to win?

41 sats \ 6 replies \ @kepford 24 Jan

What does destined to win even mean. I mean, that's like calling last year's super bowl. The US has dominated pretty much my entire life... does he really believe it will never end? Every empire falls.

54 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 24 Jan

Exactly. Just because one has an advantage over someone else doesn't predetermine their victory. No one would ever compete in anything if that was the case.

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 24 Jan

overconfidence is a slow and insidious killer

20 sats \ 3 replies \ @brandonsbytes OP 24 Jan

“destined to win” was just the most terse way I could convey his general idea in a title.

41 sats \ 2 replies \ @kepford 24 Jan

No worries :) This guy just annoys me.

20 sats \ 1 reply \ @brandonsbytes OP 24 Jan

haha, I'm realizing a lot of people feel the same way. He is very smarmy.

41 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 24 Jan

I also suspect he has an agenda he's pushing covertly. Due to his connections. But I have no proof. Just be aware.

52 sats \ 0 replies \ @cascdr 24 Jan

Zeihan just seems like a deep state shill. I find his takes somewhat entertaining and sometimes insightful. For example I agree that Mexico could have a bright future due to favorable demographics.

However the fact that he thinks bitcoin has negative value is proof that there are massive gaps in his understanding or willingness to understand certain topics.

90 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr 24 Jan

Peter’s books are definitely interesting, but there are a handful of places where I think he’s in over his head (talking about Bitcoin for example).

I think he spoke somewhat favorably about Canada’s natural resources and renewable energy plants, and given the 10x smaller population along with a larger land mass than America, it seems reasonable to think Canada might be in an even better position geographically.

63 sats \ 3 replies \ @eduardopro 24 Jan

No. Next question.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @brandonsbytes OP 24 Jan

😂😭what’s your favorite color?

199 sats \ 1 reply \ @eduardopro 24 Jan

Red, white, and blue.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @brandonsbytes OP 24 Jan

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT 24 Jan

"The Next 100 Years" by George Friedman also has a similar conclusion.

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @cryptofolyo 28 Jan

US fights its war in Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, Afghan etc During second world war they fought in Europe

They dont have to fight war in their soil.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @cryptofolyo 28 Jan

But increasingly as u can observe hostile land invasions and maintaining an invading army in a hostile territory is becoming increasingly impossible. Defence is cheaper for the native people and offence is expensive for the invading army. And maybe communication between the native people is faster now a days because of advances in tech, so that the resistance is better co ordinated. That may be the reasons why US had to withdraw their presence from iraq, afghan etc

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @globalmerchantio 25 Jan

Living in literally in the middle of the North Pacific Ocean, Oahu Island, (Honolulu) and as a small business owner for many years (manufacturing, importing, exporting, wholesaling, export services) Most of our growth and benefits in general are because of Tourists and business from Asia, South East Asia and Oceania.

In my humble opinion most of us here are speaking a few Asian languages or at least know how to work with importers over there, meaning immediate actual phone conversations, acceptance / flexibility in lower M.O.Q's.

If we had to deal with "open border issues" and bizarre socialistic laws we probably would be in the same situation as the Mainland USA.

In the short and medium time we are and still will benefit by trading with Asia and South East Asia. Accepting SATS will become the norm for both B2B parties as both fiat currency swings and Bitcoin price swings are showing us B2B can deal with this issue.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @nullama 24 Jan

Geography clearly has a big impact on the country's success.

Also the amount of riches (oil, gold, etc) the land happens to have.

The climate also makes a big difference. I believe there is a correlation between temperature and success, as in, countries with colder climates tend to do better. It might be because people simply die on the outside on the cold countries, whereas they can survive on the hot ones. And also that being too hot is just uncomfortable and makes you less productive.

But in the end what's most important is the people in the country. And as you mentioned, the US could potentially face the issue of an internal war.

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @oliverweiss 24 Jan

If this would be the only reason, Australia should win too, shouldn’t it?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @brandonsbytes OP 24 Jan

I remember he talked about Australia briefly. But, I don't remember what he said. Sorry Australians! Thanks for Bluey.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @OriginalSize 24 Jan

All else being equal, ok. But all else is not equal.

He seems like a master of broscience. I also dabble and consider the US similar to England and Japan as isolated enough so that only the worlds best and brightest could make it with enough energy to affect it.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @PlebeiusG 24 Jan

My thoughts are for.

But our cities are turning into slums and our people bicker about absolute nonsense ideology. Our institutions are being corrupted by wokeness.

So we have an advantage, but it appears we are squandering it.

There was also a time when the President’s words meant something… we have slipped and are still slipping.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Atreus 24 Jan

"Determinism" is a strong word, but there's no doubt geography advantages the USA. Globally speaking, the USA took the high ground:

Unfortunately, that's a double-edged sword, innit? Painting yourself as king of the hill 👑 invites everyone else to boot you off. No one has ever yet been king of the hill for long.

1 sat \ 0 replies \ @0348090484 25 Jan

Zeihan is a sleazy dummass

1 sat \ 0 replies \ @f6287b82CC84bcbd 25 Jan

United states is falling from within.

All the reason why Biden was selected

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Hamstr 28 Apr

Can American win? They can probably but the military spending? I think could lead to their downfall. It gets too expensive to maintain an empire, we've seen this throughout history. The government wants to expand, but you need funds, thus inflation was engineered.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @cryptofolyo 25 Jan

Massive influx of people crossing darien gap because of inflation in countries like venezuala 25% of their 28 million population is already out of venezuala

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @cryptofolyo 25 Jan

https://bit.ly/dollarhyperinflation

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @Roll 24 Jan

It is a nationalist USA book, isn t it ? Cause if there is a natural disaster... Cause if there is a nuclear bomb...

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @brandonsbytes OP 24 Jan

i didn’t get nationalist vibes from him, but it’s US centric for sure.

42 sats \ 2 replies \ @Roll 24 Jan

ok, but it is strange for me to write a book on that topic. It sounds like USA is apart, it divides USA and the rest of the world, showed indirectly a supremacy, created indirectly a fear and more....

In my conception of my life, we are living on the same planet, we are one, we are an human race, we are all and etc... Division, Power, Supremacy, Fear and etc.... are the cancers of our human race