If the capital markets have given us one message recently, it is this: the eurozone is losing ground to the United States. This is not least due to overregulation, the highest taxes and the massive climate propaganda that we have been experiencing in Europe for some time now. Europe ( better: the Eurozone) is simply no longer a good place to invest. One example: last year alone, Germany lost 135 billion euros in net direct investment. That speaks volumes, and it will not change in the foreseeable future. I continue to believe that if the United States succeeds in decoupling itself from the Davos destruction policy in the near future, it will be the safe haven for many investors around the world.
86 sats \ 3 replies \ @shado_op 4 Feb
This is an interesting take, agree with it.
I would add that with Euro elites openly calling for military conscription and prepping for conflict with Russia, (Unbelievable but true, esp given the history and the pathetic state of most euro armed forces, EU and non EU), Europe is a highly risky investment case on top of policies that seem designed to reduce economic growth....
If you were allocating capital on a global scale, I reckon you would not want to invest in Europe when you could move your money to a much safer and more business friendly environment in the US...
reply
58 sats \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 4 Feb
Good points added. Thank You. USA and some asian countries like India or Vietnam look interesting
reply
21 sats \ 1 reply \ @shado_op 4 Feb
Dont know much about Vietnam so have to look that up, but every time I look at India I can't believe no one seems to see the exceptional growth of it's professional and middle classes. Globally, India is the future?!
reply
25 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 4 Feb
It really looks like that. Economy is growing strong, low state debt, demographically stable, too. And it's a ''swing state'', dancing on G7 and BRICs parties like a real geopolitical pro.
reply
46 sats \ 18 replies \ @justin_shocknet 4 Feb
Devil's advocate / speculation:
Remove a handful of tech stonks, "mag 7", and the S&P doesn't look much better, might even look worse.
Germany's economy has already been exposed with the energy war against Russia, and general euro dysfunction is largely priced in...
The US's grid exposure, which the media has been foreshadowing so it doesn't come as a surprise when comms are blacked out around the election, is not priced in.
The next shoe to drop, some mix of emp/cyberattack/terrorism, will require a new "emergency" trade deal with Germany/EU as Siemens and other manufacturers of our electrical grid are all HQ'd there.
Sprinkle in some extra "near shoring" after China acts on Taiwan, long Germany could make an interesting pair trade.
reply
21 sats \ 15 replies \ @shado_op 4 Feb
Could be, but would argue the economics, on a relative basis, means Europe is already weaker, so if the US takes a hit, the global economy takes a hit, Europe gets even worse?
However, within Europe, Germany will remain the strong man; but this is due to everyone else's weakness more than Germany's strengths, plus the abject failure of the UK's political elite to even begin to understand how to tilt towards the ROW instead of Europe post Brexit...
reply
21 sats \ 3 replies \ @arrivederci 4 Feb
Depends on how you define Europe but I see Russia as the emerging 'strong man' (and where some German industry is already migrating to).
reply
1 sat \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 4 Feb
Russia is growing faster than the Eurozone. And Germany loses a lot of capital to the US. Do You have info about capital moving from G. to Russia?
reply
42 sats \ 1 reply \ @arrivederci 4 Feb
My understanding is that German industry and industrial talent (that sees the writing on the wall) is mainly looking at 3 places to move to : the US, Russia and China. The latter two may be more the talent (people with strong industrial experience and skills) than industrial capital for now due to sanctions difficulties but that situation can and I think will change (Germany will recognise the need for a rapprochement with Russia in the fairly near future).
I recall seeing reporting on increases in numbers of Germans migrating to Russia and talk about Germany's chemical industry favouring Russia as best suited to its needs but I would have to dig up references to substantiate my recollections, so absent those take what I'm saying with a grain of salt.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 5 Feb
Interesting. Thank You for Your insights.
reply
21 sats \ 9 replies \ @justin_shocknet 4 Feb
If the US takes a massive hit, Germany would still be cut deeper ofc... but from such a low floor I don't think it'd be a 1:1 ratio. I think you'd lose less money long DE than US if shit goes sideways.
Demographics and structural factors would also mean the US recovers faster, so still not great to be German atm.
It's important to note too that Germany's entire existence since WW2 has been to stay marginalized by globalists and denied long-term sovereignty and prosperity. Now, with the future of NATO uncertain and the rise of German nationalists, those are potentially big upside catalysts that make the risk/reward somewhat interesting.
reply
0 sats \ 8 replies \ @TomK OP 4 Feb
Yeah, You make some good points. But please show me a german nationalist movement after the gov covered everything going on with its paied ''protest against right wing extremism''.
I think this country has some existencial problems after the radical left destroyed the energy sector and attacked the industrial base that is shrinking like snow in the springtime sun.
reply
0 sats \ 7 replies \ @justin_shocknet 4 Feb
The same can be said in the US though, left wing riots / color revolutions, mockingbird media, fake republicans sabotaging the right at every turn, and the executive branch attacks on energy production-export, and our youth (read industrial base).
Germany may have worse demographics, but in the US, those of next generation that haven't already been killed by fentanyl have largely been lobotomized by psyops and chemical warfare in our food and medical industries, and are cutting off their genitals.
It's a mess in both places because it's literally the same playbook run by the same people. It's the same WW3 in different theatres... few understand this because battlefields of today are primarily courts of law and courts of public opinion, not fields with landmines.
Put this way, I think most of the destruction has already been done in Germany and it will start to recover first. The US has more battles ahead of it before we can begin to recover.
Would you rather fly in an A321 or 737-Max? and is that a product of culture?
reply
21 sats \ 6 replies \ @TomK OP 4 Feb
I understand Your point: same Davosian attack. D'accord! But: the US will activate its free market culture meanwhile Germany will be fighting for the survival of its green Walhalla and exploding welfare state.
reply
0 sats \ 5 replies \ @justin_shocknet 4 Feb
In both cases it'll be Facism that leads the recovery, because state power is always the go-to tool throughout history to undo foreign (Davos) infiltration and influence.
To your point, that still benefits the US.
German's have been so brainwashed since WW2 that most couldn't live with themselves to even imagine a sovereign Germany that's un-cucked.
I do think the anti-Russia psyop is getting ahead of the obvious solution for Germany, which is to pivot east where their energy comes from. Germany is a "swing vote" on the global game of Risk and the globalist are scared of losing it.
I think sanity will eventually prevail and they'll use at least some of that leverage. I'm bullish when the globalists are scared.
reply
21 sats \ 4 replies \ @TomK OP 4 Feb
You through a convincing curve ball! I hope You're right. Let's hope for a stronger movement that is based on the farmers' kick off
view replies
1 sat \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 4 Feb
Germany is a society in deep crisis. It really has lost its stand as a ''strong man'' of anything years ago.
reply
0 sats \ 1 reply \ @TomK OP 4 Feb
Remove the 5 good stocks from the Eurostoxx and You see the truth of a failing economy. Long Germany will kill You as these idiots not only shot themselves in the foot. they also stuck a screwdriver deeep in their ear
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @justin_shocknet 4 Feb
Maybe that's the ideal pair trade, long Schneider, Seimens, Airbus... and short the broader Eurostoxx index
Fact remains that from an economic perspective, Europe is a vassal state to the US, and that puts a floor in relatively speaking. Who has more bad news to come that's not yet priced in is the ultimate question, and I think that gets answered this year.
reply
25 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 4 Feb
Even accounting for the US being in an asset bubble, that's a huge discrepancy. I'm surprised how long ago the divergence started. It's almost like Europe just never got out of the last financial crisis.
reply
0 sats \ 1 reply \ @nicosey 4 Feb
Which has better standard of living?
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 4 Feb
Of the asian countries? I would say there are regions in India and Vietnam that can easily compared to life in southern Europe. But I have no personal experience. If they would let me in I always would vote for Florida and Texas
reply