720 sats \ 89 replies \ @Undisciplined 9 Feb \ on: Does the Economy Need Migrants? and related discussion econ
I'm probably the wrong man for the job, despite being a trained labor economist. I don't feel like I have a great handle on why this has become the biggest concern amongst voters.
I sense several different things that are all being bundled together here:
- Concern that migrants are reducing wages (that's really what "took our jobs" means
- Concern about criminal behavior at the border (drug and human trafficking)
- Concern about the magnitude of migrants being unmanageable
- Concern about the impact on future elections
- Fear that a literal invasion is being hidden amongst the migrants
- Old fashioned xenophobia
Each of those topics would warrant it's own discussion and the one I hear discussed the least is probably "taking our jobs". You're right, though, about the evidence generally not supporting that immigration reduces wages of native workers. It does seem to reduce wages amongst previous immigrants, if I'm remembering the paper about Cuban refugees correctly. The quick and dirty explanation is just that productive people increase supply more than demand which benefits almost everyone.
I think the concern now is the enormous numbers of migrants who are just living off of the government and not doing productive work. This doesn't seem to be a big problem in my neck of the woods, but relatives from big cities have told me about the strain being put on local infrastructure. I also think part of the visceral reaction right now is due to parent outrage that schools are being repurposed to house migrants.
Within 6 I would say there's 6a and 6b
- 6a: Old fashioned xenophobia
- 6b: A fear that a distinct cultural identity will be lost
6b may be legitimate or illegitimate depending on how much a person values soft concepts like "culture". But personally I think liberal westerners are too quick to disregard the importance of culture. For example, I find it strange that everyone is allowed to be proud of their cultural heritage except Caucasians. As an Asian person myself, I greatly appreciate and cherish European culture and I would be very sad if the various European countries were to lose their distinct cultural identities.
In that sense, I consider myself slightly in the 6b camp. Or at the very least, I think this is something that is valued too little by the average western elite.
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You become what you import
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It's interesting how closely this parallels the conversations we've been having about how to grow Stacker News.
I'm very much in the "proceed with caution" camp, because I don't want the culture we've developed here to be overrun with standard toxic internet behavior. I can certainly see why people feel that way about immigration, even if I don't.
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If you want to see name calling go to the thread a few days ago about msnbc. I called Rachel Maddow a lying lesbian which triggered at least one person
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That's just true, though. :)
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It’s disgusting how much money she makes
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I guess this is a shot at me. Another example why we can’t have a conversation about immigration and the rule of law
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Have we not been having a conversation about immigration all day?
You might be coming off a bit aggressive, but you've been making real points and you haven't called me any names yet. I'd say that's better than I'm used to on most social media platforms.
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Proceed with caution ⛔️
This is how everyone should think about immigration from third world countries
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Yes. I think this is the third rail, though. I never see it discussed.
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Any discussion about race or ethnicity is taboo
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Western elites are insufferable, some are evil, most are greedy and power hungry
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Voters should have a say who should and shouldn’t enter and how many per year
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You mean like language, should all Americans or residents in America be expected to speak and read English?
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Good point, I should have split those things up. It's a little more complicated to disentangle them for America, though, because of the widely held "melting pot" view of American culture.
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Melting pot is assimilation which is what many immigrants and their advocates oppose. Melting pot is the opposite of multicultural
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Right, but both cultures change as a result.
"Prepare to be assimilated. Your cultural and technological distinctiveness will be added to our own."
-Borg greeting
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The Hegelian dialectic view of assimilation
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Immigrants from third world countries refuse to assimilate. In fact many hate western culture however you define it
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Some do. Some don't. Your absolute statements are hyperbolic. That's not to say there isn't a real problem there.
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It’s not 50/50 as your statement implies
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Most do not. These are not immigrants who passed thru Ellis Island
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My issue with unchecked migration (beyond the downward pressure on unskilled labour as you mention and the demand for essential services) is that it almost inevitably leads to far-right populism in politics…. the fear of the ‘other’, real or imagined, is a powerful motivator for people to vote in authoritarian types.
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it almost inevitably leads to far-right populism
That's been my concern with most of the ridiculous left-wing stuff over the past decade or so.
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As a counter-reaction to it?
As an aside, Illegal migration was actually covered up by some socialist European governments in the 00s. It was their dirty secret… and now many left wing parties have no solution for the voters concerns feeling they have been betrayed.
There are 70+ elections in the world this year.. I can see this being the year of the ‘strong man’ (and I use that word deliberately).
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Voters feel betrayed because that have been betrayed and ignored
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As a counter-reaction to it?
Exactly. While I think many of the policies being pushed by the left are dumb, I think the potential reactions to them are more dangerous. When people feel threatened, high-minded moral principles go right out the window.
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That ship has already sailed and isn’t coming back
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We'll have to build a new one then.
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We need to build a wall
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Go ahead. Or do you mean I need to be stolen from so that my money can be used to build a wall against my will?
Your statement is appallingly elitist. Unchecked immigration is a legitimate concern for the middle and working class
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Not sure how it’s elitist… I guess I could say i am an unskilled labourer by day and it’s a concern for me and my cohort. Or just suggest that not all the ‘facts’ that politicians spread about immigration come to pass… hence real and imagined.
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Maybe politicians should listen to voters, real voters with real concerns.
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Which part is imaginary?
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Ok. I’ll pick - the drug crisis is the result of illegal migration.
To quote Mike Johnson:
“America is at a breaking point with record levels of illegal immigration. We have lethal drugs that are pouring into our country at record levels.”
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Johnson never said the drug crisis is caused by illegal immigration. He implied it is exacerbated by illegal immigration from Mexico
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“Our southern border is already overwhelmed with illegal migrants and dangerous drugs.”
- Mike Johnson
Implied? That seems like conflagration.
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The drug crisis is not relevant. The more pressing issue is 10,000 illegal entry daily
What is the difference between far right and not so far right? Serious question
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Apparently the higher the incidence of extreme or divisive rhetoric the further the relative rightness…
The definition of extreme and divisive rhetoric is however entirely subjective and it is numerically unquantifiable by sensible people.
On a serious note and as an observation the ‘far right politicians’ seem to come from outside politics.. they rarely ‘grow more extreme’ while in politics… but I could be talking out of my arse.
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Extreme and divisive are not the same. Most if not all important issues are divisive. Divisive is an excuse to shut down debate and suppress right wing views
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I think you're correct that "far-right" really isn't about political philosophy. It seems to be more about how much the establishment dislikes someone.
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Is the climate agenda far left or science
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The climate agenda is not science. Climate science is science.
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I agree, but as a highly politicized issue that is largely funded by politicians, there's relatively little climate science.
I've written about the struggles and experiences I've had as someone who occasionally does work related to climate change and has a background in climate science. It is much easier to publish work that comes to the "right conclusions" and much more difficult to get research approved that may counter the narrative.
I'd say it's pretty fair to call most of what the public thinks of as "climate science" leftwing propaganda.
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Milei, Trump, Le Pen, PVV in Netherlands 🇳🇱, the right wing populist in Brazil, etc
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It’s like saying my problem with unchecked violent crime is that it attracts anti crime politicians
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Why do you assume populists are authoritarians? Authoritarians can and frequently are left wing and elitist
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I also think part of the visceral reaction right now is due to parent outrage that schools are being repurposed to house migrants.
is this a widespread thing in America? haven’t heard of this until now
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I don't know how many place are doing this, but I've heard it reported from more than one. It's a really big deal in New York. At least that's my impression.
Maybe our resident New Yorker can clarify.
cc: @siggy47
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I was just about to reply. I'll look for more details, but the other night I was watching local news and there was a story of an NYC school (maybe Brooklyn?) that cancelled classes for a few days to use the building to house migrants. This caused outrage for obvious reasons, but also because resident property taxes fund NY school districts. I wonder if they will be issuing tax refunds 😀
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The accommodation problem is real, it's very bad, but this is only the tip of the iceberg.
I think what's usually not easily seen is how unchecked migration
- affects the quality of life of the native populations: House prices, school places, doctor appointments etc,
- how it can destabilise small rural communities that often rely on seasonal tourism, for example when struggling local hotel owners are being made very lucrative offers with tax payers money to repurpouse their accommodations into migrant centres to house hundreds of new foreigners,
- how it can affect the local culture and disrupt the political landscape (Germany has recently passed a law to allow dual citizenship and will give the right to vote to ~2.5 million new citizens)
- how it gives governments many other opportunities for printing even more money.
This has been the reality in Europe for a decade now.
I also feel the need to say this: the problem is not the people, migrants or natives, but the governments/the EU/the system that orchestrates and incentivises this whole mess.
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I remember when Europeans were super judgemental towards Americans for being concerned about illegal immigration. You don't see that view quite so often anymore.
I agree with you that it's more about the types of effects you highlight than the direct taking of jobs and that the governments are to blame.
What is the incentive? Charity? Cheap labor? Rig elections?
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I'm no economist, and admittedly, I could be wrong, but it seems to me that, to remain competitive, Europe doesn't only need cheap (Russian) energy, but also cheap labour from the third world. Nothing is done to stop the migration, on the contrary!
What i know for sure is that in my country of origin, you're more likely to become rich, or even just live decently, by working for the government, and as the government grows, it gets increasingly difficult to make it as an entrepreneur. What do capable people do? They emigrate. First they went to the big cities (rural exodus), but since the mid 90s, they're increasingly leaving the country.
But what happens to the country when more and more capable people emigrate? The less capable get in charge and nothing works anymore. Good luck with finding a plumber, an electrician, a doctor etc, who knows what the fuck he's doing, and is honest and trustworthy! It's kind of a death spiral, the government grows even faster, everything becomes expensive, the country becomes increasingly dependant on foreign aid (remittance, EU aid, etc) then a civil war erupts...
I'm not sure if I actually answer your question but the point I'm trying to make is that even if migration is good for western economies etc. It has terrible long-term consequences for third world countries. Will Syria recover from the massive exodus of all these people that have fled the civil war, and are now living in Germany? Same for many African countries.
What are the long-term global consequences?
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Great reply, thanks.
Good luck with finding a plumber, an electrician, a doctor etc, who knows what the fuck he's doing, and is honest and trustworthy! I
Did you live there long enough to witness this drain? The logical flow of it makes sense, but I'm wary of too-simple explanations. For instance, in my place of origin we face a similar problem, and there are definitely forces at play that have hollowed the region out so that skilled tradespeople are few and far between, but I don't think you could make a case for it being because those people went to take cush government jobs.
It's kind of a death spiral, the government grows even faster, everything becomes expensive, the country becomes increasingly dependant on foreign aid (remittance, EU aid, etc) then a civil war erupts...
I know of a number of cyclical accounts of history or of development; I wonder if this particular one has been explored anywhere? Seems pretty easy to do empirically.
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Did you live there long enough to witness this drain?
Oh Yes! Look at what's happening in Mayotte, or Lampedusa, etc... it's like at the us southern border. It's been happening slowly and gradually since the mid 90s, and then suddenly since 2015.
The first drain was actually in the early 60s, when tens of millions of settlers, mostly Europeans, were forced into exile. Several of them, especially in Algeria, had lived on the continent for many generations, side by side with natives.
I mentioned it here: #419496
Completely different times!
All of these things adjust and balance out when markets are allowed to operate.
The problem in Europe is that the government is crowding out private employment and stifling economic activity with regulations. Europe doesn't need 3rd world immigration to stay competitive, per se. That's mostly a result of how distorted your economies are.
On the flip side, if Syria had free markets, the result of the mass exodus would be much higher wages. High wages would attract people back, naturally.
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I'm inclined to think you're technically right, but I'm less sure about how practically right you are. E.g., "if everyone would just be chill and not attack each other, there would be much less conflct." True, but not really helpful. Specifically:
if Syria had free markets, the result of the mass exodus would be much higher wages. High wages would attract people back, naturally.
Logic seems reasonable. But there's a lot buried under the surface of "if Syria had free markets." Like, free markets are a result of good governance, at some level; and political freedom; which itself is bound up with lots of other things, and feeds back on itself in complex loops.
Put another way: the minimal viable practical solution to getting Syria the free markets you're describing might still be a giant lift. Which doesn't make you wrong, but I think it changes the tactical prescription of how that (or similar things) might be helped along.
Look at Denver and Chicago
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I hadn't heard about Denver, but Chicago is one I thought I had heard about.
Look at Denver. Its largest hospital is on the verge of shutting down because no one is getting paid. Illegal migrants get free medical care. Not free but paid for by legal residents
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2, 3 and 4 are legitimate concerns
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Great list. So much bundled into what appears, from the outside, to be one topic.
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There are many reasons for opposing open immigration but it’s still one topic.
There is criminal behavior inland too not just at the border. Did you see the attack on NYPD? NY is not a border state unless you are concerned about Canada 🇨🇦 too
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Illegal immigration has changed the voting patterns of California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Georgia since 1988
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I think more importantly it changes the number of Congressional seats and therefor also the number of Electoral College votes.
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It’s apportionment and voting patterns. Why do most if not all left wing states oppose voter ID laws? Why the push for amnesty and a short cut to citizenship? Why are ballots printed in Spanish and other languages?
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I'm with you on the first few points, but there's no reason ballots should only be printed in English. If a legal citizen's first language is something other than English, isn't it better that they understand what the ballot says as well as possible?
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Maybe it’s better if they don’t vote
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Probably, but I don't like how most people vote and don't believe in democracy.
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