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21 sats \ 7 replies \ @grayruby 16 Feb 2024 \ on: 2024-02-15 - NBA Recap Stacker_Sports
Grizz pushed the Raps back into top 6 draft seeding (I know there is a draft lottery so it doesn't work that way).
Pretty good game, I caught a bit of it.
Raps should get a pretty good draft seeding. Yes, there's the lottery, but it's skewed towards the teams with a worse record, so if you're not horribly unlucky, your pick should fall around your seeding rank (or how shitty your record is).
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But if a team with a worse record gets one of the first four picks then that would push the Raps out of the top 6 and their pick would defer to San Antonio correct?
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You mean a team with a better regular season record than Raps gets one of the first 4 lottery picks? The first 4 picks are determined by lottery, then pick 5 and on are determined by regular season standings, in reverse order. Team with worse record picks before team with better record.
That pick with the Spurs is top 6 protected. So yea, if Raps remain 6th worse in the league at the end of the season, but a team with a better regular season record than Raps gets lucky and wins one of the top 4 picks through lottery, Raps will get pushed out of top 6 in picks, and the pick defers to the Spurs.
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Gotcha. I thought that was the way it worked but wanted to be sure I wasn't mistaken. So say if the nets get the first pick and Detroit doesn't get 2, 3, or 4. Detroit would automatically be pushed to 5th as they have the worst record. So if the Raps stay in the bottom 6 they will keep their first round pick regardless if they win a top 4 lottery pick or not as long as the 7-14 teams don't get a top 4. That's a lot of teams though. I know they have lower odds but their combined odds for a top 4 pick must be pretty good.
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So if the Raps stay in the bottom 6 they will keep their first round pick regardless if they win a top 4 lottery pick or not as long as the 7-14 teams don't get a top 4.
That is correct.
The following are odds from nba.com. If I'm not mistaken, I think they put them in using ping pong balls and draw from the same lot to get the first 4 picks. And yes, the combined odds for 7-14 to get a top 4 pick is not low. In the end, it comes down to luck.
Team > Odds for No. 1 Pick
Team 1: 14.0%
Team 2: 14.0%
Team 3: 14.0%
Team 4: 12.5%
Team 5: 10.5%
Team 6: 9.0%
Team 7: 7.5%
Team 8: 6.0%
Team 9: 4.5%
Team 10: 3.0%
Team 11: 2.0%
Team 12: 1.5%
Team 13: 1.0%
Team 14: 0.5%
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This site is fun https://www.tankathon.com/
I ran it 10 times and 8 of 10 the Raps lost their draft pick but the other two they got the number 1 pick.
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Oh damn, you're throwing out things to help me not concentrate on work lol. Fun site indeed!
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