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So if the Raps stay in the bottom 6 they will keep their first round pick regardless if they win a top 4 lottery pick or not as long as the 7-14 teams don't get a top 4.
That is correct.
The following are odds from nba.com. If I'm not mistaken, I think they put them in using ping pong balls and draw from the same lot to get the first 4 picks. And yes, the combined odds for 7-14 to get a top 4 pick is not low. In the end, it comes down to luck.
Team > Odds for No. 1 Pick
Team 1: 14.0% Team 2: 14.0% Team 3: 14.0% Team 4: 12.5% Team 5: 10.5% Team 6: 9.0% Team 7: 7.5% Team 8: 6.0% Team 9: 4.5% Team 10: 3.0% Team 11: 2.0% Team 12: 1.5% Team 13: 1.0% Team 14: 0.5%
I ran it 10 times and 8 of 10 the Raps lost their draft pick but the other two they got the number 1 pick.
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Oh damn, you're throwing out things to help me not concentrate on work lol. Fun site indeed!
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