Let’s take a 10-year time horizon here, do you think MSTR will be up or down against Bitcoin?
MSTR will outperform BTC50.0%
MSTR will underperform BTC50.0%
38 votes \ poll ended
330 sats \ 7 replies \ @freetx 5 Mar
Its effectively a 2x long....so if BTC goes up, MSTR (in theory) should go up more.
Likewise if BTC goes down, so will MSTR (maybe to the point of collapse depending on factors).
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90 sats \ 0 replies \ @joda 5 Mar
They can lay off employees but it's gonna be pretty hard to spontaneously come up with a revenue stream.
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76 sats \ 5 replies \ @kr OP 5 Mar
why 2x?
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211 sats \ 4 replies \ @freetx 5 Mar
Not actually a 2x, just meant its a leveraged long.
Using (a) share issuance, (b) operating income, (c) debt issuance....saylor pumps money back into bitcoin which forms a virtuous cycle (balance sheet rises, so share price rises, which leads more shares issued).
This is basically a BTC printing machine during bull markets, unknown how this would unwind if a sharp drop occurred.
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231 sats \ 3 replies \ @kr OP 5 Mar
when it comes to share issuance and operating income, is it right to say these are not “leveraged” activities?
selling shares isn’t creating any leverage, it’s just diluting current shareholders and adding more bitcoin to the balance sheet to counteract the dilution.
using operating profits doesn’t create leverage or dilute shareholders either.
so only the debt issuance is adding leverage, right?
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142 sats \ 2 replies \ @freetx 5 Mar
yep you are of course right, its not "leverage"
However, it will functionally act as leverage. If 99% of your valuation is your balance sheet and your balance sheet falls by 80%, then obviously your stock will crater as well.
This then impacts your ability to raise more money and may in fact trigger loans to be called.
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141 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 5 Mar
right, but in the context of outperforming/underperforming BTC, MSTR would probably outperform if they only used share issuance and operating profits, right?
i know the debt introduces some additional risk, but if we remove that variable for now, wouldn’t it be reasonable to think MSTR would outperform as long as operating profits were positive?
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @freetx 5 Mar
Yes, I agree with that.
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267 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 5 Mar
It is a levered play on bitcoin. It probably outperforms in the bull and underperforms in the bear.
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125 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 5 Mar
it also has the benefit of cash flow, which could be used to either grow the # of bitcoin per share or pay down debt without diluting shareholders over time.
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122 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 5 Mar
Yes, I am looking forward to seeing what they do in terms of "bitcoin development".
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211 sats \ 6 replies \ @birdeye21 5 Mar
10 years? Block reward will be less than a full BTC...I cannot imagine the scarcity effect. Everything relative to BTC will look like a rugpull im thinking, but it could depend how long the US can kick the can down the road i suppose
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54 sats \ 4 replies \ @kr OP 5 Mar
why would MSTR look like a rug pull if their balance sheet (and valuation) are nearly 100% BTC
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0 sats \ 3 replies \ @birdeye21 5 Mar
idk really, i just know that MSTR is not a perfectly scarce money and so i personally wont be holding it long term 😭 "Rug pull" price action is how I assume most things will look relative to BTC over a long enough time frame; if it's truly the "baseline" measure of value for the world, then nothing should outperform it long term, and hoping that anything will keep up/outperform is speculative imo, not bad, just an investment opportunity if you see it as such!
There's also nothing ruling out Microstrategy cratering in on itself for any given reason. Just having a BTC balance sheet doesn't inherently mean you have a valuable company
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202 sats \ 2 replies \ @kr OP 5 Mar
i think this is a big blind spot most bitcoiners have.
dollars have been the “baseline” measure of value for 100 years, and lots of companies outperform dollars.
gold was the “baseline” measure of value for the previous 2000 years, and lots of companies outperformed gold.
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217 sats \ 0 replies \ @birdeye21 6 Mar
MSTR/BTC on the Log scale is compelling to look at. The cogs are turning
I agree that nothing changes about the fundamentals of investing on a BTC standard, it becomes the new baseline to bet against. It is just the nature of a deflationary baseline currency rather than inflationary ones like dollars and gold that make me question the long-term sustainability of any uptrend against Bitcoin. Most people will not need to invest like we do today as tech + BTC decreases the cost of living, but for those who do, MSTR looks to be great bet i must agree
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @ZezzebbulTheMysterious 6 Mar
One generally outperforms the market, rather than the dollar.
It’s trivial to beat the dollar with it inflating so damn much!
Gold was mostly static in price due to fixed redemption ratios for fiat, or fixed ratios for metal. The whole “a men’s suit cost 1oz au for most of human history”.
Gold is static price, it’s easy to outperform!
Bitcoin. This will be hard to beat until we get to it’s real price (something beyond $1=1s)
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55 sats \ 0 replies \ @Fabs 5 Mar outlawed
stackers have outlawed this. turn on wild west mode in your /settings to see outlawed content.
15 sats \ 17 replies \ @gd 5 Mar
If Saylor's currency attack is successful— which I'm certain it will be, you might be able to get lots of dollars for your shares, but they'll be worthless... You'll never be able to claim the Bitcoin.
Recommended reading: https://theintrepidlife.substack.com/p/the-inflation-kings-cautionary-tale
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121 sats \ 12 replies \ @kr OP 5 Mar
do you also think all ETFs will be worthless?
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0 sats \ 11 replies \ @gd 5 Mar
The value of the currency that the ETFs are denominated in (and pay out in) will be worthless
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115 sats \ 10 replies \ @kr OP 5 Mar
let’s assume the US dollar goes to zero and is no longer a currency one day.
do you believe the ETF holders will see all their Bitcoin ETF shares disappear?
i don’t.
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0 sats \ 9 replies \ @gd 5 Mar
Not at all, but they won't be able to redeem anything of value with the ETF shares.
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10 sats \ 8 replies \ @kr OP 5 Mar
why not?
if you can’t “redeem anything of value”, you’re essentially saying the ETFs will go to zero.
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0 sats \ 7 replies \ @gd 5 Mar
Because they're a claim on dollars, not Bitcoin— you said "let's assume the US dollar goes to zero"
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21 sats \ 6 replies \ @kr OP 5 Mar
Are they really though? I think ETF holders will be compensated in the event of a US dollar collapse.
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110 sats \ 1 reply \ @jillofallcoins 5 Mar
True, but it also depends on if/when you sell off and what you do with those earnings (i.e buy Bitcoin). It's worth mentioning Microstrategy's moving towards a Bitcoin company, which may offer more revenue streams and potentially ways to convert stock into BTC.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @gd 5 Mar
The ability to convert equity to BTC would be nice, but would they offer that? Maybe they ask for a premium to compensate for the risk?
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100 sats \ 1 reply \ @jp30566347 5 Mar
Fiat rewards is still fiat.
Saylor will certainly become Most Wanted.
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @gd 5 Mar
Absolutely. Strive to own as many hard assets as possible, do not strive to gain as much money as possible.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @watchmancbiz 6 Mar
Not sure, but I sure wish I would have hung on at my buy around $600.
just p/u again, then immediately starts dropping again! please!!! hanging onto it this time! not doing that again!!! still learning how to trade :D
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @wealthcrumb 5 Mar
the rug threat is from nation state interests
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @BitcoinIsTheFuture 5 Mar
Totally underperform. Just think how easy it will be to buy your own sats in 10 years! That’s like 100 years in normie world.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 5 Mar
What does buying your own sats have to do with whether MicroStrategy will outperform Bitcoin?
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @BitcoinIsTheFuture 5 Mar
I’d rather buy my own sats than buy MicroStrategy. If more people do that it will outperform as it becomes easier. More products & companies will come out it 10 years for more direct exposure than Microstrategy
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0 sats \ 4 replies \ @OT 5 Mar
They should underperform as they can inflate the supply.
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0 sats \ 3 replies \ @kr OP 5 Mar
they can also generate extra cash flow
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @OT 5 Mar
How?
Sorry, I know nothing about stonks
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 5 Mar
they are a profitable company, it’s the same way any company makes money.
revenues larger than expenses.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT 5 Mar
Right...
I still think as more people gradually learn more about bitcoin they are going to want to hold it themselves. So I still think bitcoin will outperform
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @KLT 5 Mar
Over a long time horizon, I feel like it’ll underperform but MSTR’s performance will be incredible compared to everything else so that’s saying something.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 5 Mar
why do you think it will underperform?
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