One important difference between farming and software development is the gulf between the complexity and skill required. Farming still requires a lot of management and skill as well as a ton of luck but it seems to me having grown up in a farming community that machines replaced mostly manual labor jobs. Additionally chemicals increased yields at least in the short run (there are negative side effects for this long term). Software engineers most important skill is problem solving.

Here's my take. I've said it before but I'll repeat it. We are many many years away from "AI" being able to actually solve problems that have not been solved many times before. I have used these tools and many of my colleagues have as well. They do not replace the years of experience and knowledge as well as problem solving skill. They do however save time and make software engineers more efficient. The field of software engineering is already hard for a new comer to get into and I expect it will get even harder now. I see AI replicating a really bad new programmer pretty well. If you run a company and think you can hire a prompt engineer to replace your devs I pity your customer support team.

I agree with you that the likely outcome of all this is new industries that were economically enviable becoming possible. Many of the sky is falling story lines lack all logic to me as well as knowledge of the history of technologies and their affects on humanity. AI isn't magic. It is a bad name for different type of algorithm. I've lived through previous hype cycles and heard to crying, I will live through it again.