I'm guessing these calculations don't factor in the cost of settling funds on chain though?
correct, this is just the cost of using different payment systems
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I'm guessing even if you factored it in, it wouldn't change the story too much, since on chain fees are pretty low, and you're unlikely to need to open or close channels too often
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true, i suspect a lot of new bitcoiners in the coming years will have their very first interactions with bitcoin via lightning too… the concept of a base blockchain might not even matter to them
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