In a bid to restore fiscal health, the government's unveiled plan aims to slash the deficit to under 3% of GDP by 2027. Economic Minister Bruno Le Maire underscores unwavering determination to break free from the deficit-debt cycle. Macron's hard-won pension reform, raising the retirement age gradually from 62 to 64 by 2030, is poised to contribute.
Following the recent deficit announcement, France is embroiled in a fervent political debate over tackling the financial malaise. President Macron rules out tax hikes, given France's already hefty tax burden. However, Premier Attal hints at flexibility during a televised Q&A session, citing two red lines: no tax increases for the middle class and job creators.
Despite this stance, Yaël Braun-Pivet, National Assembly President, floats the idea of a special tax targeting companies reaping "superprofits" and hefty dividends. The staggering combined profits of France's top 40 corporations in 2023—155 billion euros—fuel political appetite for change.
The government favors expenditure cuts over revenue adjustments, navigating resistance from affected interest groups. Renaissance faction leader Sylvain Maillard proposes a "blank year," suggesting a freeze on social benefits, pensions, and minimum wages to inflation for a year, potentially saving around 25 billion euros.
Meanwhile, Premier Attal pitches an unemployment insurance reform as a panacea, aiming for reduced spending and increased workforce participation. France's current unemployment rate stands at 7.5%, relatively low but slightly higher than Germany's 6%. To tap into dormant potential, Attal plans to curtail unemployment benefits, reducing the maximum duration from 18 to 12-14 months and tightening eligibility criteria.
However, implementing stricter rules for unemployment insurance hinges on consensus within the social partnership framework. Opposition arises, cautioning against further reforms at the expense of the most vulnerable. The looming challenge remains quantifying the savings potential, with the annual cost of unemployment insurance standing at 40 billion euros. Massive cuts seem imperative to impact the overall budget significantly.
With France's fiscal trajectory uncertain, Moody's doubts the nation can meet Maastricht criteria within three years, likening its financial woes to Greece—albeit on a larger scale. France teeters on the brink of becoming Europe's next financial concern.