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So what metrics would you use to determine if and how Lightning Network is being adopted and is successful?
Verifiable data points like node count, public channel count, and public capacity.
Anything else used to "build a better model" is not verifiable, so it arguably makes the model worse.
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You could probe for unannounced channels and publish their funding transactions and channel point. That would be a "value add" in terms of estimating true usage of the network.
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