0 sats \ 9 replies \ @kingzing131 28 May \ parent \ on: The Paradox of Bitcoin Adoption bitcoin
Volatility is not a trend, it's called volatility because it is movements variance along the trend.
Yes, exactly. My point remains the exact same.
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No because then you argument was on volatility and not trend.
And when I said trend, it is only on the supply side. Unless you think an economy running on BCH would somehow be deflationary as well.
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No, the trend makes for the volatility too. They are not unrelated. A trend towards a deflationary economy diminishes volatility. A trend towards an inflationary economy augments it. It's impossible to pretend to eliminate any possible trace of noise, that's for granted. And I never meant that. What I specifically stated was: volatility unbearable to allow full adoption.
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I do data analysis and finance, so you can obviously tell from the whole conversation how confusing it is.
A predictable trend can be plotted with a formula. Volatility is variance, stand deviation of this trend.
You can look at historical record to predict the rate of volatility, but it is still a variance on the trend.
inflationary or deflationary does not decrease or increase volatility, volatility depends on the trading. Bitcoin has a predictable money supply rate, it does not make it less volatile since traders gonna trade along with it.
you cannot fix it even if full adoption happens.
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Again, I'm in no way pretending to eliminate any possible source of noise so that a tendency is a perfect mathematical line with zero variance. I said "volatility unbearable to allow full adoption", not absence of volatility. We can't say "USD haves a 2% volatility rate, BTC 50%, so since they both have volatility, bot are equally bad/god as units of account, no distinction, you can use either USD or BTC to set prices right now, won't note a difference". As for "inflationary or deflationary does not decrease or increase volatility", that's just not true, I can tell you from first hand experience in Argentina.
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inflationary or deflationary does not decrease or increase volatility Volatility does not need to be going down in value, if bitcoin can pump 50% in a month, that's an extreme volatile for an economy. And vice versa.
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Again, we are not debating Bitcoin as an asset, but as a unit of account.
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An asset is what it is. Unit of account is its function