72 sats \ 3 replies \ @Cje95 30 Jul \ on: The thing about rate cuts... econ
Honestly with the US elections if we get one cut I will be impressed. The Fed is so careful that it doesn't cut or increase rates to affect the election outcomes and the Fed wants months worth of data. We could get a Sep. but then Nov and Dec typically read hot so they wouldn't want to cut then due to holiday sales
write
preview
50 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 31 Jul
That's a good insight. September might also be too close to the election, if they're concerned about political interference.
reply
41 sats \ 0 replies \ @Cje95 31 Jul
I think in Powell's ideal world he would cut in December to avoid the whole issue but with numbers for the most part trending in the right direction if he waits a few more months he might end up with a hard landing...
The EU numbers today though I think really help Powell though since they cut and their inflation came in higher than expected. He should be able to use that along with our mixed bag of numbers to continue to push.
reply
20 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 31 Jul
They are always very careful about these things during election season. If only they would be this careful all the time instead of once every 4 years.
reply