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21 sats \ 24 replies \ @didiplaywell 31 Aug \ parent \ on: Kamala's Housing Plan Will Make Housing Even More Expensive econ
She is a woman, that assures her 50% of the voter-base right away. She needs only one more vote, and there's plenty. She looks either black or latina depending on the angle. And there are too many soyboys buying socialist shit. Not only she will win but it will do so by landslide. She can easily reach 60%
Ask any woman you know what other womans plan to vote. You will find almost 100% fidelity towards Kamala. It's so bad that all major libertarian woman on X are slamming the 19th Amendment. That speaks volumes on how serious the issue is.
Trump has won with married women in both of his campaigns. Kamala will dominate with unmarried women, though.
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Trump didn't had a woman in from of him prior. The recent economic crisis must have negatively impacted the rate of new couples forming due to economic constraints to form a family, plus all the new generation of woman indoctrinated in woke ideology and still unmarried. And we are not counting democrat couples. It's to much weight on favour of Kamala.
I'm of course not talking about what I want to happen but about what I calculate will happen. Numbers are on favour of Kamala. It's terrifying.
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You know that the only election he's ever won was against a woman right?
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Hilary was old, it doesn't count, it was like having biden in front of him. That points to the other positive on Kamala's side: she's much younger. A young, "black/latina" woman. Game over.
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You're moving the goal posts. That kind of demographic analysis comes up every election cycle and it almost never pans out. She's intensely unlikable, which will keep many women and minorities from supporting her.
Here are my predictions:
- Fewer than half of women who are eligible to vote will vote for Kamala
- She'll do worse with black voters than Biden did
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I want to believe you. I'm highly pessimistic on this one.
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I have the same gut feeling that I had in 2016. Someone that uncharismatic can't win a national election. Now, they might just cheat. That wouldn't surprise me.
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You can rig hundreds or thousands of votes. But that's only useful if the elections are way too balanced, as when Biden won. Like, ok, Trump might have been the one to win that state by +200 instead of losing by -500, but... in a state of 10.000.000 voters? ...such a lame difference? When the difference is so small it's meaningless, and by all means the right decision is power alternance in such scenario.
So what you have to look at is not if they "have" to cheat but if they can cheat. If they can barely tick the compass so to make it change direction, then the compass is broken. It's key to address that because after Biden won, Trump voters remained convinced that everything happened solely due to cheating and no auto-correction was ever made. Now, no correction has been made, and for many choosing Trump has become solely a way to not to chose Kamala. That's not how you get things straight. The core problem must be addressed.
Her problem is likability especially outside of California.
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She has to pretend to be a moderate. Will voters believe her transformation?
Most importantly will voters in Pennsylvania believe her when she says she will not ban fracking
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Do not underestimate people' stupidity. The same thing happened here: in 2019 the same party that always did the wrong thing promised to not to do it "this time" and people was so disappointed with our "Trump" (Macri) that they wanted to believe it. And that's a rock-solid psychological force at play: if there's the slightest reason for people in Pennsylvania to not to vote Trump, they will be unavoidably biased to be willing to believe Kamala, actively forcing aside rational thought. I confidently predict people will believe Kamala, not out of rationale, but because they want to do so. They desperately want it to be true. That's an immovable psychological force in a context of despair, specially in a country strongly educated in the concept of faith.
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If women didn’t vote, the world would be a better place
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I think it's strongly cultural. Here in Argentina Milei haves nearly unanimous support from teenage girls and up. He only starts to reach 50%-50% once the 30 year-old mark is passed, and he is despised by older women unanimously. But that's an absolute win, the loyalty of the youth is assured. I would say our experience was balanced. Younger girls were determinant in assuring Milei's victory, but older women almost send us straight into the socialist abyss. I'm confident this new generation of girls will underpin a new tendency among women.
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