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This is only for the outputs of the transaction. Would actually be much smaller in reality
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You can batch open lightning channels, and it doesn't take many in a batch to effectively amortize away the txins and change.
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Yes, its hard to know how much block space LN will consume.
I was just surprised that these numbers would mean that its possible to have over 20k TX per block. I see 3-5k at the moment, but I don't think I've seen more that 6-7k. Is that because some TX have batched outputs?
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The numbers are about txouts, not transactions. They're assuming LN channels are batch opened, which is already implemented and commonly done.
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Yeah kinda
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This us the first I've heard about being technically able to open 1.1 billion LN channels per year.