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64 sats \ 4 replies \ @Cje95 OP 5 Sep \ parent \ on: Day One of Jobs Report: August private payrolls rose by 99k, far below estimates econ
If this wasnt an election year I think it would be much easier to cut rates and cut them bigger and quicker. Being an election year and with the election so close now it is a wild card given what Powell has said about not wanting to influence the elections. Given how disconnected the stock market has been with what people are actually paying and dealing with finances I feel like a correction has to be coming.
If the correction happens before the election Republicans will love it and could leverage it to sweep the elections if it doesn't then I think we end up with some sort of divided Congress/Presidency again.
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Yeah I feel the correction is going to come no matter what. The economic data hasn't been terrible but it hasn't been great either. China continues to struggle to rebound, something that I think surprised everyone, and the US isn't going to keep pumping money out like they are (IRA,IIJA) and Congress is looking at passing a CR for the rest of the year meaning the budget is going to be flat.
I think Powell will have to make a cut and it will be announced this month but its going to be small at 25 basis points. Something he can point out at and say hey look at what I did but also wont really effect anything. 50 would cause some market chaos and spook investors
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I am trying to recall if there are any big economic announcements coming the next couple of weeks beyond the jobs numbers tomorrow and I don't think so. Oil prices I think could be a big sign esp if we see a collapse of them due to a demand shortage via China. If that hits the market could spiral and spiral real quick
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