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0 sats \ 3 replies \ @SwapMarket 15 Oct \ parent \ on: Bet on the US election with sats on bitcoinprediction.market bitcoin
I did place my bets, to test it out. My goal is to make your site better, not to spread FUD. By the way, there is a typo in "Total Bets: 3284581 stats".
I don't like that you show everyone's bets with full lightning addresses. Better mask them for privacy with something like this: y...7@walletofsatoshi.com
There were no payouts yet, so blaming me to be lazy is unfair. I will do the calculations after the elections, don't worry.
However, I already noticed a problem with Who will win the US election? stats. I cannot find my bet placed yesterday:
Same problem with Popular Vote Winner 2024:
I did find my bet on New York Presidential Election Winner 2024, so that worked.
Please explain the first two problems and correct them.
Ok fair enough, I can see you're very knowledgable and providing constructive feedback. I apologize for the bug there. It seems as if your payment coincided right when my co-founder was deploying an updated backend. The pending payment was recorded, but it seems like the payment confirmation was not. The table we show is only displaying confirmed payments, and since there was a backend deployment interrupting that process, once the pending payment got confirmed it didn't get successfully recorded. We've now listed your bets on the status page, hopefully we won't run into the same error again.
We're working on fixing that bug so any future backend deployments won't run into the same issue. Thank you for bringing that up.
Our objective has been to figure out how to create a long-term prediction market on Bitcoin with the best security and UX. Of course custodial isn't the ideal or optimal way, but it would be foolish of us to spend months developing product when we're uncertain of the actual market demand (been there, done that, it's not worth it).
I was doing some research into how to do non-custodial prediction markets with DLCs. I can see that it is possible, it just requires much more capital, time, and energy to build. Same goes for building on Liquid—we are in a crunch time period and need to fundraise soon, so we just don't have the time or resources at the moment to commit to building a super sophisticated product, just an MVP. In an ideal world we could raise a shitload of money from VCs and hire some wizard cypherpunk devs, but alas we are only a team of two figuring it out as we go along.
I really do appreciate your feedback.
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No problem. Thanks for the opportunity to verify and for the quick fixing!
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I bet no on bitcoin reaching 80k by Nov 5. I don't see this bet anymore on https://www.bitcoinprediction.market/ so I assume it has closed. However, I am not seeing any payout either. Is this supposed to be automatic?
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