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0 sats \ 3 replies \ @SwapMarket 16 Oct \ parent \ on: Bet on the US election with sats on bitcoinprediction.market bitcoin
Do you not deduct any fees?
It's just weird that odds for Trump and Kamala add up to 108%. But it does not mean that betting on all outcomes will make a profit for this guy:
Did you remove the link to the stats?
Stats are listed below the topics. Click on the title of the topic to go there. We thought it would be better to show all the stats below the topics, rather than on a separate page.
We show the bets placed, but the fees are deducted when we send the payouts (1% fee at the moment). The total odds add up to 108% because it is basically
Odds_total = Odds_Trump + Odds_Kamala = Y_T/(Y_T+N_T) + Y_K/(Y_K + N_K).
Both markets are independent (betting on Trump does not change Kamala's odds, it only changes Trump's odds), so they are not necessarily supposed to add up to 100%. For a clever user like yourself there's an arbitrage opportunity there to balance the odds. Few people have spotted that so far.
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from ChatGPT:
How Arbitrage Works:
For arbitrage to exist in a betting market, the combined implied probabilities of all outcomes must be less than 100%, allowing you to bet on both outcomes and lock in a profit regardless of who wins.
For example, if Trump were at 60% and Kamala were at 35%, you would have a combined 95% probability (less than 100%), and you could profit by betting on both sides. However, in your case, the total is over 100%, so no arbitrage is present.
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