Interesting. Maybr l just dont hear about it because of my state. Which states are the most likey to break off?
The two you mentioned, CA and TX, because they are the largest economies and make the most geographic sense.
Alaska, Hawaii, and Vermont also have significant independence movements.
In the event of CA or TX splitting off, I would expect other states to join them: i.e. the rest of the West Coast leaving with CA and most of the middle/southern parts of the country leaving with TX.
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These are my own thoughts, but CA could never run without the government subsidies. It doesnt even have its own water supply. If it were to break away, it would just flounder. Texas on the other hamd, l could see it breaking away and being successful. From what l have seen, they have quite a bit of independent thinkers there.
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There are other nations that don't have abundant fresh water. CA could continue purchasing water from AZ or ramp up its desalination industry.
They would need economic policy reforms to deal with the loss of federal welfare funding, but CA still contains a lot of wealth and even more unutilized productive potential.
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Desalination costs a lot of money. California is practically bankrupt, it would have a hard time getting off the federal goverments teet.
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That's true, but it wouldn't necessarily be a deal breaker. California would still be one of the wealthiest countries on Earth. Europe is substantially poorer than California, for instance.
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California has become that way because of government subsidies. Do you really think the people can bear to shoulder that? Take away the subsidies and infrastructure, CA would easily collapse on itself.
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California became wealthy through genuine economic productivity and has devolved into a welfare state. That's very similar to the story in much of Europe.
My point is that California wouldn't be any worse off than a typical European nation. That may be worse than its current situation, but it's not really a complete collapse.
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California may have become wealthy in that way. That was the past. They are barely keeping afloat. I bet soon their local government will ask for a bailout. They are also struggling with immigration and the homeless.