2 > 1: The curious case of recent QB drafts.
1177 sats \ 3 comments \ @Undisciplined 8 Nov Stacker_Sports
@Coffee proposed a topic for The Stacker Sports Podcast on our nostr thread and I wanted to share it here.
Why have the top picks in the past two drafts (Bryce Young and Caleb Williams) been so significantly outplayed by the players taken immediately after them (CJ Stroud and Jayden Daniels)?
It's early in the careers of each of these players, but Stroud and Daniels are already looking like MVP caliber franchise QB's. Why did teams miss this?
The most obvious hypothesis (that the Bears and Panthers flubbed their picks) doesn't make much sense, because Young and Williams were the consensus top picks in their drafts.
A bigger question is why it's so difficult to spot an MVP caliber QB from their college play.
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7 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 8 Nov
I don’t recall, was Young the consensus pick? Honestly, I didn’t follow that draft very closely because the 49ers didn’t have a pick until the 3rd round. I don’t recall the same hype for Young as there was for Williams.
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40 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined OP 8 Nov
Pretty much. Every year there seems to be some manufactured disagreement right before the draft, but he was consistently the top prospect. That was more extreme for Williams, but even last year there was a little "Maybe it'll be Jayden" talk leading up to the draft.
Williams was definitely the more hyped prospect. The previous year, I remember hearing analysts saying that Young and Stroud wouldn't even be top 5 QB's if they came out a year later.
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16 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 8 Nov
I think last draft the discussion was more around Daniels or Maye for the second pick. Williams was definitely the consensus number one pick.
Looks like Young was -300 odds heading into draft to be the number one pick and Stroud was +180.
Williams was -1000 and Daniels was +1400. Maye and Harrison Jr had better odds than Daniels.
So definitely Young was the heavy favourite but nothing like Williams.
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