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30 sats \ 4 replies \ @denlillaapan OP 18 Nov \ parent \ on: Debt Wager: U.S. National Debt Over 40trn by Independence Day Next Year? bitcoin
It doesn't. The implied probability of the bet is for that moment, means nothing for later payout (as I'm starting to learn).
It's just the sum of the pots divided across winner and loser (minus fee)
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17 sats \ 3 replies \ @Arceris 18 Nov
Well, good thing I didn't go big. I'd be rather annoyed that they're using parimutuel odds and it isn't like a prediction market and I'd have gone big based on the implied probability.
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @HYPERBITCOINZATION 18 Nov
Yeah we're working on an LMSR version where you have fixed odds when you place a bet, and you'll be able to exit your position if the event outcome looks unlikely (hopefully out by EOY or early next year). We went with the parimutuel system because it was simple to develop, but it's by far not the best for incentivizing early bettors or for long-term event forecasting.
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10 sats \ 1 reply \ @denlillaapan OP 18 Nov
exactly. Good to just try these things out with smaller amounts
I would have made lots more money from the Trump election bet had I known about this and wasn't concerned with the counterparty/payout problems that someone (@south_korea_ln ?) listed above
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @justin_shocknet 18 Nov
@HYPERBITCOINZATION
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