Yeah we're working on an LMSR version where you have fixed odds when you place a bet, and you'll be able to exit your position if the event outcome looks unlikely (hopefully out by EOY or early next year). We went with the parimutuel system because it was simple to develop, but it's by far not the best for incentivizing early bettors or for long-term event forecasting.

HYPERBITCOINZATION

justin_shocknet

exactly. Good to just try these things out with smaller amounts

I would have made lots more money from the Trump election bet had I known about this _and_ wasn't concerned with the counterparty/payout problems that someone (@south_korea_ln ?) listed above

denlillaapan

bitcoin

Debt Wager: U.S. National Debt Over 40trn by Independence Day Next Year?

Well, good thing I didn't go big. I'd be rather annoyed that they're using parimutuel odds and it isn't like a prediction market and I'd have gone big based on the implied probability.