Trump Bitcoin Report Card - progress report 1

How can grades be given on his bitcoin pledges when Trump hasn't even taken office? True, Trump is currently not in office and therefore can't do anything formally on his pledges. However, the possibility of him being president (while a candidate) and the future of him being president (while president-elect) can actually change things.

So, a progress report is called for to see how things have passed since his Nashville speech laying out most of these pledges.

In education, there's the question of where do you start with a grade, at 0% failing and go up or 100% and go down? Being bitcoiners, we should demand proof of work before giving anything. So, Trump starts with all Fs, we look for work, we award credit for that work, and we go from there.

Pledge 1 - There is debate as to whether the president has the power to fire the SEC chief. Apparently, Senate approval is required. Things seem to be at play: first, there evidently is a tradition that the SEC chairs steps down when a new president (or at least a new political party) takes over. This allows for the new administration to move forward with his newly elected policies. Given Gensler's recent comments, it seems this is becoming a reality. Secondly, even if Trump does not have the explicit power to fire Gensler on day 1, there may be other ways to oust Gensler. Trump might begin, on day one, to initiate the process. More likely, Trump's positions on the SEC chair have already sealed Gensler's fate. Combined with the tradition of stepping down, Trump's words have effectively already fired Gensler. There's a good chance that Gensler resigns before January 20, 2025 (when Trump is inaugurated), thus depriving Trump of carrying out his fire-on-day-one promise. Either way, Gensler seems done because of Trump. So, Trump gets a decent starting grade here on the progress report.

Progress Report Grade: B-

Pledge 2 - This pledge actually is binary: either Ulbricht's sentence is communted on day one or not. However, there is a bit of nuance. First, does this mean commuted sentence only or that Ulbricht actually walks out of jail? Certainly there is some time lag between a commutation and walking out. If ultra-motivated on this, Trump might work the mechanisms pre-inauguration to allow for Ulbricht to literally be released on January 20, 2025. That would yield a strong A+ grade. If by day two the sentence is not commuted, a grade of "F" would be appropriate. But, the pledge was to commute on day one. So, for now, an "NG", no grade, is assigned.

Progress Report Grade: NG

Pledge 3 - Until legislation on bitcoin and crypto taxes actually gets codified, a passing grade isn't warranted. Some credit might, might be given for at least bringing up this topic and entering it into public discussion. This type of talk might actually help Pledges 8 and 10 to some degree by making the US more bitcoin and innovation-friendly. But, the IRS is not concerned with discussion and friendliness. They hold taxpayers to the tax code and the tax code is either changed or it is not.

Although this pledge seems binary, one bit of nuance might still exist even if capital gains are not exempted. Namely, the new Trump era might clarify what exactly the tax implications of bitcoin actually are. For instance, it would be helpful to formally know if bitcoin is considered property or if it is currency or how is it like a stock and which governmental agency are bitcoiners dealing with (the SEC, CFTC, IRS, others, or all?). Even though capital gains would not be exempted here, this would help bitcoiners tax-wise.

Progress Report Grade: F

Pledge 4 - By stating in his Nashville speech that a "strategic bitcoin stockpile" would be implemented, step one was made toward a bitcoin reserve. This gets Trump a fair starting grade for the progress report. To improve, as president, we need to see "formal" statements and actions. The BTC held by the US needs to continue to be held. And, a plan for buying more BTC needs to be made. Holding, followed by actually buying more BTC will improve this grade.

As a note, Michael Saylor outlined in this podcast why such a bitcoin strategic reserve could be useful to the US in a "cyberspace" "Manifest Destiny." Were Trump were to take up Saylor's advice and move in that direction, the grade here would improve considerably.

Progress Report Grade: C

Pledge 5 - Currently there is no CBDC. So, it's actually inaction that gets a decent grade here. Trump's speech, pro-bitcoin appointees, and a more favorable Congress lend well toward continued inaction, that is, not moving forward toward a CBDC. To improve this grade, formal policies restricting or forbidding a CBDC going forward need to be laid out.

Progress Report Grade: C+

Pledge 6 - Creating an advisory council might be one of the easiest pledges to follow through on. It would require simply an announcement of a team and then, perhaps, occasional meetings. Of course, who is on the team might matter (ie, how much influence will altcoiners have) and what comes out of the council might matter as well. Nothing particularly has happened on this, except, maybe, the recent meeting with Brian Armstrong about "personnel" appointments.

Progress Report Grade: D-

Pledge 7 - This pledge begins a series of pledges that are rather nuanced...it will be difficult to definitively say, "Yes this pledge was accomplished," or, "No, it was not." One metric as to whether the right to self-custody is maintained is how many wallets or developers are "attacked" by the US justice system. If the justice system goes after very few, or none at all, that would signal the right to self-custody is indeed maintained. There's little to grade on here post-election and pre-inauguration. Perhaps the only thing to grade is what's not present, the "unseen" in economics terms. There does seem to be less chatter about bitcoin being scams and the tool of terrorists and criminals.

However, conversely, the home of the Polymarket founder was recently raided...a possible signal that the crypto world is not left unnoticed and the arm of the government can still wield power. As an initial progress report, the grade starts low and changes must be seen as evidence for the grade to improve. There needs to be policy or legislation that specifically ensures the right to self-custody.

Progress Report Grade: D

Pledge 8 - Like Pledge 7, this is also a subjective promise. "Stopping" the "the war on crypto" will not have a clear toggle of yes or no, it will be open for interpretation.

Senator Elizabeth Warren's "war on crypto" has lost several battles recently. Republicans have been seen as more bitcoin-friendly, but Democrats have been slowly changing their tune. During her campaign, Vice President Harris started to grow more pro-bitcoin. And, "war on crypto" politicians have tempered their words. Certainly the "war on crypto" crowd has been hushed. With Republicans (generally more pro-bitcoin) in the White House and both houses of Congres, the crypto warriors numbers seem to have become a minority. Their possible ability to push legislation through seems very small, at best, at the moment. Trump deserves some credit for changing these numbers.

For Trump to keep Pledge 8, he needs to further this pendulum swing away from bitcoin animosity and toward pro-bitcoin policies. One way of doing this is to use the "bully pulpit" of the White House to change the narrative. In a way, Trump's Nashville speech has already done this - giving Trump a good initial starting grade. If pro-bitcoin legislation comes to the US Congress, such as Senator Cynthia Lummis' bill, the degree of Trump's support will also impact his report card grade here. Certainly, him signing into law a bill favorable to bitcoin would help his grade on this pledge. Like Pledge 7, we start low and need real evidence to improve the grade. Already, Trump has named "pro-bitcoin" people to top positions...this is a good signal and gets a "+" added to the D.

Progress Report Grade: D+

Pledge 9 - Anyone who knows anything about bitcoin knows this pledge is impossible. What's more, it's not even desirable. Being decentralized, bitcoin cannot be mined in only one location. Anyone who mines can mine blocks regardless of locale. And, it would not be ideal to have all of the blocks mined in one nation because decentralization would then be undercut. Most likely, when Trump called for remaining bitcoin to be "mined, minted, and made in the USA," this was him engaging in some old-fashioned campaign hyperbole.

Since the pledge is impossible to actually happen, grading this pledge becomes difficult. One must start with the fact that Trump made an impossible-to-keep promise. If he doesn't understand that, then that misconception is a serious strike against him from the start. If he does get this, but just wanted to score political points with a sounds-good line, that's not particulary endearing either. Either way, his starting grade for Pledge 9 is low. Going forward, grading this pledge is likely conjoined with Pledge 8 - if the "war on crypto" is brought to an end in the US, American mining activity should stand to benefit. A grade here might be impacted by: (a) US judicial system not bringing action toward miners, (b) by not criticizing the use of electricity by miners as being environmental waste, and (c) by lowering the cost of energy. A more tangible measure of any success here might be in any increase in the hash rate of US miners. Pro-mining policies, cheaper energy, and an increased US hash rate would boost Trump's grade on this pledge.

Progress Report Grade: D-

Pledge 10 - Pledge 10 is all-encompassing and is therefore really linked to all-of-the-above. In recent years, there has been talk (and action) of US human capital and US companies leaving to other more bitcoin-friendly nations. This chatter has already seemed to subside. And again, Trump's embrace of bitcoin might be seen as a major part of this flee-the-US mentality of bitcoiners. Also, the Nashville speech in particular may be later seen as a watershed moment. Given by someone who just-might-become-president, such a strongly pro-bitcoin speech may well have changed the bitcoin narrative and mood. By accepting bitcoin and gaining bitcoiners' support, one might say Trump single-handedly forced Democrats (including candidate Harris) to flip their anti narratives into pro.

Progress Report Grade: C-