At 5-5 with a 1-3 divisional record and 3-4 conference record they might all be must win games at this point. However, this Sunday against the Packers in Green Bay and the final game of the year in Arizona are currently the two most important games on the schedule. Considering there are 6 games to be played before that late season Cardinals matchup and a multitude of things could happen to affect both teams playoff chances that game is irrelevant right now but could be of paramount relevance when the time comes if the standings remain as they are now.

Why is a non divisional matchup against the Packers in week 12 so important? Well, the Packers are the 6 seed so a win keeps the 49ers in the wildcard hunt in case the division is lost but I still think if the 49ers have any path to the playoffs it will likely be through winning the division. Even if the 49ers were to beat the Packers they would still be a game behind the Packers and have a tougher schedule ahead of them. There is a good chance if the Packers do remain the 6 or 7 seed they will have at least the same, if not a better record, than the team that wins the NFC West.

The 49ers don't have an easy game remaining on the schedule with the Packers, Bills, Bears, Rams, Dolphins, Lions and Cardinals remaining. This is the second most difficult schedule remaining in the NFL. Yet, if they win this week their playoff probability jumps from a current 30% to 47% but if they lose it drops to a dismal 16% and we probably start mock draft season way too early. Any way you slice it, they likely aren't running the table with this slate of games. Even if they were playing like the 49ers of old, the Bills and Lions games would be very difficult matchups and all while the 49ers are better than all the other teams (including the Packers) they aren't playing like it this season. You are who your record says you are. Anyways, looking forward is kind of pointless considering the impact this upcoming game has on the probabilities.

Here's why the 49ers will win Sunday:

The 49ers have the Packers number. Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers are 4-2 against Matt LaFluer and the Packers during the two coaches tenure with their teams and Shanahan is 3-0 against LaFluer in the playoffs. I know we aren't in the playoffs but the 49ers sure need to play like it. This game means a lot more to the 49ers than the Packers.

CMC is back and Kittle should be playing. CMC is starting to round into form in both the running and passing game after returning from the Achilles injury. He has looked good but a bit rusty missing a couple plays that he usually breaks for explosive runs. Teams are selling out to try to stop the run which is leaving the 49ers short passing game open. Purdy missed a couple easy check downs to CMC last week that would have led to first downs and helped to sustain drives. Purdy removed the check down from his game while CMC was out but we started to see glimpses of it returning in the past couple games. Kittle being back will be huge in the run and pass game. They sorely missed his blocking and playmaking ability last week. Purdy doesn't trust Saubert (#2 TE) in the pass game (probably for good reason) but he trusts Kittle more than anyone not named CMC or Juan Jennings. The Packers D is good but not great. I expect the 49ers to be able to move the ball and score enough points to keep them in the game.

Juan Jennings has embraced the #1 WR role with Aiyuk out and even though he doesn't have the speed and skill set of an elite receiver, he simply will not be denied. He made Witherspoon, who is one of the best corners in the league, look foolish on a number of plays last week. I don't know if CB Jaire Alexander is going to play for the Packers but I don't think it matters because JJ loves playing against the other team's best.

The 49ers Defense has been shaky at times year, especially late in games, but has been good at forcing turnovers. Love is a good young QB but hasn't been as good this year and while he is throwing a lot of TDs he is also throwing a lot more INTs than last year. If the 49ers D can control the run game and force a turnover or two in this game they can contribute to a victory.

Here's why the 49ers will lose Sunday:

The 49ers have not looked like themselves all year. Sure we can blame injuries or players missing training camp due to holdouts. One guy got shot and another guy tragically lost his 1 year old daughter. It has truly been a season of everything that can go wrong has gone wrong. At times they look like the 49ers of old and then manage to shoot themselves in the foot. Drives ruined by penalties, drops, missed assignments, misreads and opposition drives extended by penalties, missed assignments and missed tackles. Something has seemed off all year. The 49ers culture is different. It could just be the fact that they are so used to winning and dominating and now that they are getting punched in the mouth they are reeling and don't know how to get back on track. But it has been bad. Not playing complimentary football at all. If the D makes a big play then the offense gets 2 penalties on the next drive and has a 3 and out. If the offense has a long sustained drive to score a TD, the D will then give up a massive 3rd and long and a score and give the other team momentum. And don't get me started about special teams. The best thing I can say about special teams is they didn't lose the game last week. That's the best the 49ers can hope for from that unit.

The Packers have a good running game and the 49ers have not been very good against the run this year. If they can get the run game rolling it will open up a lot of play action and potential for explosive plays downfield for Love and the receivers. Bosa is probably not playing, which means Love is going to have time and probably room to roam to extend plays. The Packers OLine isn't great but without Bosa neither is the 49ers DLine. There is no way Geno Smith escapes for the game winning touchdown last week if Bosa wasn't watching from the sidelines. That's a big loss for the 49ers with a D that is already struggling mightily in 4th quarters.

The 49ers D is ranked 4th in the NFL in the first quarter and 28th in the NFL in the 4th quarter. Teams figure out what Sorenson is calling and absolutely toast him in the 4th. The 49ers offense hasn't been helping to keep the D off the field in the 4th but the D needs to be way better down the stretch. The 49ers have blown 3 games this year where they had a 90% win probability in the 4th. A lot of that is on the D. They are the second worst in the league in points scored against them in the last 2 minutes of the 4th quarter. This is my biggest concern heading into this game and upcoming games. The 49ers need to have a multiple score lead to close out games and that is hard to do against good teams.

What will happen?: Honestly, I really don't know. I could see the 49ers getting a signature win this week to keep their playoff hopes alive but I could also see them falling flat on their faces and playing the same bad football they have all year. Since I am a fan, I will err on the side of foolishness and unwarranted hope and say the 49ers finally get their signature win in this game, but that is an opinion very loosely held.

Prediction (so you can mock me later): 49ers 27 Packers 23

Thanks for reading my analysis/rant.

Sats for all, GR