We Can Feel It In Our Bones! SN Slowing Down & Bet Updating \ stacker news ~meta

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We Can Feel It In Our Bones! SN Slowing Down & Bet Updating

1084 sats \ 28 comments \ @denlillaapan 1 Feb meta

I bullied/pestered/incited @mega_dreamer into making an SN post prediction market for us a while back, and now we have a nice little bet going (#850716). Maybe we can supplement our dwindling daily rewards with some gambling, eh?!

Will SN hit #1,400,000 by the end of 2025?Will SN hit #1,400,000 by the end of 2025?

I have been open with owning the "No" contract for this—numbers don't check out—and I mean to keep a monthly tab on the progress (plus buying some more each time). So I've pulled some numbers into a little spreadsheet and will share it with the Stackers now and again.

To hit the goal, SN needs to add 1,550 items a day on average. For January, we added 40,070 items (this inclusive!) for an average of 1,293 a day—falling short by quite a bit.

What's worse is that the pace is slowing down. When I joined a few months ago, SN was doing 1,400 items a day or so: In the 107(!) days I've been here, the SN count has advanced about 147,201 posts, for a daily rate of 1,375. That's quite a bit above where we are/have been recently, and well below where we have to be for the bet to come through.

If I count right, at the end of today we are 8.5% of the way to NYE 2025, but we've only made 7.05% progress on the target. Relatively speaking we're slightly less behind than two weeks ago when I last made an update (#850716) but still not great. (Wallet troubles and semi-shitcoinery ain't helping...#869415)

My sats are in the money, dudes!

There's been very little activity in the bet, unfortunately, but so far I'll take the cheap sats for as long as they're on offer:
https://beta.predyx.com/market/stacker-news-hit-14m-items-in-2025

Anyway, very fun to track. Happy Friday, folks!

view all related items

315 sats \ 5 replies \ @k00b 1 Feb

Historicals may be interesting. It appears January is historically a slow month. We produce 3k more items this month than the same month last year. We produced fewer posts this Jan, but way more comments.

1/24: 35496
1/25: 38534

146 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 1 Feb

Do you have numbers on rsync? I assumed he/it was generating 150 items a day between posts and people commenting on them.

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @k00b 1 Feb

They produced almost 15k items during his lifetime here. Nearly all posts.

109 sats \ 2 replies \ @denlillaapan OP 1 Feb

Ah man, your infographics are much prettier than mine!!

Zaps are number of zaps or total sat amount?

109 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b 1 Feb

That's number of zaps. Sat amount had its own halving:

1/24: 4.5m sats
1/25: 2.4m sats

1 sat \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 1 Feb

I bet it’s Ken’s experiment lol

Bad joke

133 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 1 Feb

That difference from a couple months ago to now might be rsync related. Rsync alone was probably posting at least 50-60 times a day. Not all of them got comments but some did. I wouldn't be surprised if he/it (not sure maybe a bot) accounted for 150 items a day.

40 sats \ 2 replies \ @028559d218 1 Feb

At least they (the bot?) were paying per each post.
Bots post on Twatter hundreds of times a day without paying anything at all.
Siphoning value from other users

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 1 Feb

Definitely. I didn't mind rsync. I just ignored the stuff he/it posted that I wasn't interested in and click on the stuff I was.

40 sats \ 0 replies \ @028559d218 1 Feb

I don't mind if Bots post either...
As long as they pay.

Eventually through the rewards pool they will be paying other users too (30% per post is siphoned for the platform itself).

In that way it's like 'mining the bots' (which can be muted anyway) and this pays out for all users in the long run.

No issue with bots as long as they pay. If they are still posting... then the 'fees' have to go up to filter them out. Hey wait... a fee market that pays out to everyone with a bitaxe... that sounds like something we know...