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@remindme in 6 months

So, with that reminder I set, are the US closer or farther from a recession?

@Meani123 @justin_shocknet @Undisciplined

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6 months later ... I can't really answer that one myself!

Are the US closer or farther from a recession?

@Meani123 @justin_shocknet @Undisciplined

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Q4 was still growthy despite gov shutdown shaving 90bps

No signs so far in Q1 to go negative, Feb jobs data for private employers was positive

Basically no chance of Q2 going negative with tax refunds, SLR changes hitting the system... No apparent catalyst to reverse construction and capex

Private credit cracking may be something but seems sector isolated

Oil price FUD actually good for domestic services and production

Doomers wrong again as always

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There's definitely a large economic correction going on, as the economy adjusts to pretty radical policy swings. It's still not clear that there's been a large contraction, though.

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Looks like the tariff fud has been digested

Earnings recession is over, kinda, revenues flat to down but efficiency up and capex being deployed (future efficiency)

Assuming fed doesn't get openly hostile we're in the clear, recession is defined as 2 quarters negative gdp... No catalyst on the horizon for that*

*Except the WW3 catalyst over Taiwan and the Suwalki Gap...

Bears are retards that are content to be poor but sound smarter than everyone... Bulls ignore retards and make the money

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Still a really weird sideways economy. I do think recession is highly likely.

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Ok😅

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This ain't just talking smack! There’s gotta be some accountability. Hahaha!

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Ok give it 6 months haha

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