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-1.4%

Reasoning: A big -5% day is rarely the end of a downturn. But there is also less to price in then there was on Friday.

Not this time.

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Yes ist is. SPY is at -1.35 currently

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/

Edit: Damn. I didn't read your post was about the opening price

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It was about the Sunday night premarket opening price. Futures open at 6pm on Sunday night. Opened at -4.1%.

Looks like you might end up being right about today's closing price though.

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