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19 sats \ 13 replies \ @south_korea_ln 30 Apr \ on: Bet Update: Us "No" Men Are So Fucked...? meta
I just tipped the odds to below 10%. Some extra incentive for the yes voters to make it happen. I want it to happen. I want SN to grow.
Hahahaaaa
...and of course Mr. @Undisciplined is here to ruin all the fun /slash/ take all the gainz for himself. Fucker.
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Right place. Right time.
I was checking in on all the first 100 days markets and saw that one at 6%. It's unlikely, but it's not that unlikely.
Probably too rash, though. I should have kept half and sold some "Yes" from the 1.5M market.
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probs... a few minutes later and I would have beat yah to it (at least for some shares)...I'm still impressed by your betting acumen. ASPIRATIONAL!
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Considering the time spent on it, the return probably isn't great. It is fun though.
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Ah, didn't realize I had a few yes shares from a while ago.
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Well, you could still sell them, since I absorbed a lot of your "No" purchase.
I feel like some kind of arbitrage opportunity was missed, seeing how the 1.4M odds dipped below the 1.5M odds for a second there, but I'm too lazy to figure out the proper betting strategy
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That's what I ultimately did. Now, the odds are just slightly higher for 1.4M than 1.5M.
It's especially tricky because the liquidity in the two markets is very different, so buying 1k shares in one moves the odds much more than 1k shares in the other.
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Yeah unfortunately predyx isn't big enough yet that you can really take a position on something but I hope it gets there eventually
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Even if the liquidity were there, it's in beta and they limit how much can be purchased at once to avoid being attacked.