Not only is Britain fucked (#968401), but EUROPE is as well.
No matter the raw-raw among Europeans as Team Trump is "self-imploding" America's heydays... Even relative to that, Europe ain't moving ahead.
A few reasons, says Parikh:
**1. U.S. is just way too far ahead: **
when it comes to underlying growth rates, the size of the US’s lead over Europe is significant.
Tariffs are bad/costly/inefficient, uncertainty nongood-plus for capital investment etc, but those are minor, short-term headwinds. Europe has bigger problems than that. Europe is too small and too irrelevant to step up and rival the great 'Murica.
2. there are checks on Trump's stupidities
There are checks on the administration. The president has already softened his most extreme tariff plans and attacks on the US Federal Reserve’s independence, amid rapidly rising long-term bond yields.
Only so much self-harm a President can do... and there's plenty of space down to the straggling, stupid-stupid Europeans (#968945).
3. Damage isn't that bad, guys
In the coming 12 months, the market expectation is for the US effective tariff rate to ultimately land between a still painful 10 and 20 per cent — from well above 20 per cent now. Business activity will be stymied by ongoing uncertainty.
This is the most reassuring (for America) and disastrous (for Europe) observation: these minor things don't matter for long-term growth. Most things are structurally/demographically/technologically already baked in:
Capital Economics does not expect the US or Eurozone potential growth rates to change notably from Fitch’s historic estimates in the long run post-Trump.
BYEBYE, stupid Europeans: so long, suckers
non-paywalled here: https://archive.md/wXvE3