Kalshi’s printing. Predyx is plotting.
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101 sats \ 2 replies \ @Coinsreporter 15 May
I'm a noob but I believe it's more of a skill based market than mere luck betting on outcomes.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @mega_dreamer OP 15 May
Its AI error lol :)
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 15 May
Lol!
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101 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 14 May
All the market shall be ours.
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101 sats \ 8 replies \ @Undisciplined 14 May
This depreciation vs appreciation margin might be really important. One of the big frictions you have to deal with on longer term predictions is that people are basically making a zero interest loan. That's compounded (pun intended) by the money also losing purchasing power.
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29 sats \ 7 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 14 May
yeah - long term markets on fiat are kinda zerosum game.
Imagine if you're betting on "Will Bitcoin reach 1M by 2030?"
In next 5 years the fiat will probably depreciate by 40-50%. Even if you win, you lost 50%.
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101 sats \ 6 replies \ @Undisciplined 14 May
@denlillaapan comments on this sometimes and I think it does bias the prediction in some way, because at the "right" odds the over is worth more than the under.
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27 sats \ 5 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 14 May
Out of context - should this market resolve to NO? https://beta.predyx.com/market/trump-tariffs-on-mexico-in-effect-by-may-1
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101 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined 14 May
I've been trying to get a definitive answer on that. From what I've been able to gather, those tariffs never went into effect. They've been repeatedly postponed.
I have skin in the game, though, so maybe @denlillaapan or @SimpleStacker can confirm that the 25% tariffs never went into effect on Mexico.
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38 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 14 May
ok, lets wait to hear from them.
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123 sats \ 2 replies \ @denlillaapan 15 May
I have zero additional info about that... My guess/googling is as good as yours. Ask Chat or Grok or something
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