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This depreciation vs appreciation margin might be really important. One of the big frictions you have to deal with on longer term predictions is that people are basically making a zero interest loan. That's compounded (pun intended) by the money also losing purchasing power.
yeah - long term markets on fiat are kinda zerosum game.
Imagine if you're betting on "Will Bitcoin reach 1M by 2030?"
In next 5 years the fiat will probably depreciate by 40-50%. Even if you win, you lost 50%.
@denlillaapan comments on this sometimes and I think it does bias the prediction in some way, because at the "right" odds the over is worth more than the under.
Out of context - should this market resolve to NO? https://beta.predyx.com/market/trump-tariffs-on-mexico-in-effect-by-may-1
I've been trying to get a definitive answer on that. From what I've been able to gather, those tariffs never went into effect. They've been repeatedly postponed.
I have skin in the game, though, so maybe @denlillaapan or @SimpleStacker can confirm that the 25% tariffs never went into effect on Mexico.
I have zero additional info about that... My guess/googling is as good as yours. Ask Chat or Grok or something
I’ve read through a few articles chronicling the many alterations to recent tariff rates and they all seem to agree that those 25% rates never went into effect.
ok thanks, resolved to NO.
ok, lets wait to hear from them.
I'm a noob but I believe it's more of a skill based market than mere luck betting on outcomes.
Its AI error lol :)
Lol!
All the market shall be ours.