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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @ramenbased 11 Mar \ on: What would Bitcoin "Failing" Look Like? bitcoin
majority of mining in one jurisdiction. censoring (sanctions for example) financed with taxmoney as subsidy for compliance blocks. only minority of blocls mined censorship free.
biggest threat to bitcoin imo is the blind faith into some magical „incentive“ that is a free market spook.
the argentine government is very clear on why gradualism wont work and open about its reasoning. the country is on the brink of hyperinflation (16000% Y/Y and 95% poverty are numbers milei carries to the public).
that is the narrative he won a presidntial election with. meaning: if you drive towards a cliff you might want to get the car to stop immediately instead of simply stop accelerating and hope you will stop in time.
gradualism was tried by macri, but what ended up happening is that pretty much all they did was aquire more debt.
therefore, the shock therpary, according to the finance ministry, has a “fiscal anchor”, they argue that the issue isnt the debt per se but the fiscal deficit. if you are a household and you spend more than you make, you probably should immediately stop eating out at 1star restaurants and instead cook cheaply at home.
another shock was the “devaluation” of the peso. exchange controls. the dollar blue (black market rate) was 1:1000 while the official rate was 1:350. the implications of this are too complex to get into, but the when they lowered the official rate to ~800, the dollar blue actually dropped, meaning the peso gained a bit of value. why?
because, and again this is the finance minstries position, its about credibility. a shock therapy sends a clear message: we are serious, we don’t prolong. we know what needs to be done and we do it.
this credibility is extremly important when you think about investments and going back to the table with the IMF and the western world at large.
i can see how many bitcoiners who think they are libertarians are a bit confuaed by all this, one commentator said “global elites”. and milei also turns to OECD and away from BRICS. so keep in mind that fascism and dictatorships historically came to power with a narrative of liberty. and in fact, many bitcoiners arent libertarians even if they say they are. they are fascists (evil global elite (jews), evil US empire blablablabla).
milei is doing what he said he would do in his campaign. milei so far is true to his economic beliefs from the position he is at. the debate of gradualism versus shock therapy was settled by democracy when people voted for milei. they are willing to take a hard hit in the short term, because they want radical, pro market and pro western value change.
“Does not the spirit thirst for freedom?” – Alas, not my spirit alone, my body too thirsts for it hourly! When before the odorous castle-kitchen my nose tells my palate of the savory dishes that are being prepared therein, it feels a fearful pining at its dry bread; when my eyes tell the hardened back about soft down on which one may lie more delightfully than on its compressed straw, a suppressed rage seizes it; when – but let us not follow the pains further. – And you call that a longing for freedom? What do you want to become free from, then? From your hardtack and your straw bed? Then throw them away! – But that seems not to serve you: you want rather to have the freedom to enjoy delicious foods and downy beds. Are men to give you this “freedom” – are they to permit it to you? You do not hope that from their philanthropy, because you know they all think like you: each is the nearest to himself! How, therefore, do you mean to come to the enjoyment of those foods and beds? Evidently not otherwise than in making them your property!
If you think it over rightly, you do not want the freedom to have all these fine things, for with this freedom you still do not have them; you want really to have them, to call them yours and possess them as your property. Of what use is a freedom to you, indeed, if it brings in nothing? And, if you became free from everything, you would no longer have anything; for freedom is empty of substance. Whoso knows not how to make use of it, for him it has no value, this useless permission; but how I make use of it depends on my personality [Eigenheit].
I have no objection to freedom, but I wish more than freedom for you: you should not merely be rid of what you do not want; you should not only be a “freeman,” you should be an “owner [Eigner]” too.
-- Max Stirner
i have always found unemployment numbers to be low. we peaked at 12% in the early 2000's or so, and have been down only since. i don't know about you folks, but at my dayjob i almost daily have interactions where i think to myself "how is anyone paying this person money". i joke to my boss sometimes that we really need a hard hitting recessions to filter out all the idiot clients.
i know in the economicel world, employment is this hugely important metric. low is good, right? the FED itself is on record for saying something like "yea who cares if we pump the fuck out of stonks bro, employment is low so what hold this QE nerd". i strongly believe that anything below 10% is artificially pumped up employment that leads to people doing nothing but browsing facebook all day.
if the coofid-era has taught me anything, it's that stocking shelves and driving food in a truck are essential jobs, while cardigan wearing steve in his homeoffice -- thinking that this is like a struggle of some sorts -- is as fucking irrelevant as could be.
and this is my main gripe with economic metrics. like who is actually losing their jobs? if it is sarah from marketing who has been working with computers for 15 years but still cant figure out how to transfer files, well then thats probably a good thing.
what actually is the cost to having so many people employed. i bet it would probably be economically more reasonable to just pay people social welfare to do nothing instead of propping up the economy for two decades with QE just so fucking karen can post selfies at her cute office with her macha latte coffee.
i dont think even educated bitcoiners understand why self custody is important. it is generally preached that its more secure because exchanges are shady and you could lose your funds. if the state would give assurance to ETF holders that if their funds are lost, even from a maxi bitcoiners viewpoint then, holding you own keys would be irrational because you arent insured if you lose them giving little rational reason to self custody.
so rather than worry about other people, might want to ponder what the novelty in the possession of bitcoin actually is.
the bitcoin incentive model is purely on chain however. some believe, out of libertarian make belief ideology, that this is what makes bitcoin censorship resistant.
the incentive is profit. miners do and will not care where that profit comes from. if US had 80% of hashrate and the state would pay miners a premium for not including txs, all miners would comply.
this is something people generally ignore under the veil of „bitcoins incentive model“ and even worse, confuse it as what makes bitcoin permissionless.
we have yet to solve this.
there is the term secondary literature, but whats the term for something written about secondary literature?
the debt trap by cheryl payer
bitcoin is first and foremost a technical matter and discussions around its changes are of technical nature. only on that basis is added context from a political and economical standpoint relevant.
else it is irrelevant.
the issue with bitcoiners at large is that we changed this dynamic around. i think that is why some core devs left -- or at least part of it.
let's not put too much weight on people who write unoriginal austrian economic books with a bitcoin marketing twist, who not only have been late to the party but are preoccupied with being polemicists and could never even hold a technical debate.
it's a cool opinion bro, but why should we care about it?
yea who cares shit pennystocks also exist. either shitcoins are irrelevant or they are so important that they dictate all of our decisions.. pick one.
i dont even care about the security budget when it comes to bip300, i just cant handle lightning being peak innovation cus its not all that impressive at the end of the day.
even culturally, bip300 would mean that bitcoin is finally freed from incel lifecoach mentor influencers which might potentially
make me stack again.
Most altcoin investors are barely aware of the technology
most bitcoin "investors" follow influencers in cowboy hats and have zero technical skills themselves. disconnected.
2023 is the year bitcoiners have become so stale and boring its barely worth reading anything lol.
ye ye back in the day bitcoin was a feeless cheap alternative to tradfin rails so commerce is adoption then it was like nah bro just hodl lmao, now you have to read austrian economics 101 for dummies and the only way for adoption is to „know the truth about money and the world“.
give me a fucking break. intellectuall effort and rigorous study, bro what. i bought bitcoin and listen to podcasts while on the toilet.
why are bitcoiners pretending like owning bitcoin is a big deal and impose all this moral bullshit on top if it.
hands down people who think like this don’t understand bitcoins value proposition beyond „muh austrian economics sound money“.
stale and unoriginal.
am i understanding this correctly, that bundesbank has the same issue as the VC bro banks that went bust?
isnt it interesting how all the finance smart guys who raged about how QE is bad never actually made the argument that the issue with it is that you cant react to inflation because youre sitting on a ton low yield garbage? economybros are all imbeciles if you ask me. they never see anything comming like what is their actual competence?
but the “for profit” incentive can be distorted. no company will deny the holy water that is public funds, so that very incentive is what makes bitcoin open to attack. ethirium has like what 50-70% of their blocks effectively sanctioned and people are okey with it.
it seems to me geographical distribution is probably the most important PoW metric?