pull down to refresh
The key part of what you wrote is “IF you hold 2-3 years of expenses in cash”.
That is, in and of itself, diversification to minimize SORR. And yes, this is especially important at the time of retirement.
The best way to plan one’s portfolio is to stress test it for randomized returns given bounded volatility assumptions (using a Gaussian box-muller transform).
You are wrong, sir, though I do respect your contributions to the space.
Bills are paid in fiat, and as long as that remains the case, retirement expenses must be budgeted for in fiat.
If you have an enormous cushion at retirement, the this post is completely irrelevant (I suspect that’s the case for you given you’re already retired).
For everyone else, common sense still applies.
Just saw your edit - I don't agree with your last paragraph. I think a lot of people are stuck in mindless fiat mining jobs that are soul-sucking. Bitcoin isn't a get rich quick scheme, agree with you on that. But I do think it's good to live by these rules:
- Create value for others
- Spend less than you earn
- Save in an asset that cannot be debased
To that end, I think wanting to save oneself from endless fiat mining is very much a bitcoin mindset.
That's what satsFIRE is about.
Fair enough! Appreciate you checking it out, and honestly your response is good feedback in and of itself. Just to explain why I made it the way I did:
I'm trying to cultivate a retire early community around stacking sats (calling it "satsFIRE"), so it's an attempt to bridge the gap a bit between tradFi and bitcoin which is why it incorporates other assets. I have some notes in there about how allocating a portion of a portfolio to bitcoin can improve success probability, so I'm trying to help these tradFi folks slowly understand the power of bitcoin without shoving it down their throats.
If you want to test new apps - let me know if you have any feedback on mine: https://satsfire.app
It's a bitcoin-friendly Monte Carlo retirement simulator. Just launched this week so looking for any ideas for improvement.
And FWIW, I like your work and think you should keep it up. Cheers
Furthering this analogy just a bit - imagine if you put a lot of work into building a rock or metal structure above the ball that keeps it submerged in water for longer. How long would it take for the structure to decay so the ball is freed?
Might take a very long time.
Not pessimism - just important to have a long term perspective. Low time preference.
Ha, I feel that. It's a fancy word but I can explain: ever seen the Avengers - End Game? When they use the infinity stones to create new timelines, they're basically creating alternate realities.
Monte Carlo simulations do exactly that: they just take your starting portfolio and simulate what happens to it in 1,000 different alternate realities. In some of those realities, the market crashes early and your portfolio goes to zero because you had to withdraw to support your lifestyle while the market was down a lot. But in other realities, the market does really well and you end up rich.
Fixed a few bugs already thanks to user feedback:
- Fixed phantom slider glitch: if allocation = 100%, touching a slider no longer changes results
- Fixed logic error: if user has 0% allocation to stocks, stocks returns slider no longer changes Success Probability
Thanks all!
Man, comments like yours get me so fired up haha. Thank you! Stoked that you like the tool, excited to keep building. Let's go
BaristaFIRE is specifically about switching to a part-time gig that's theoretically easier than your current job. Becoming a barista at Starbucks is sort of the classic example, but a lot of people would argue that's not actually that easy of a job and might be more stressful than a desk job sometimes.
That sort of move isn't necessarily part of a CoastFIRE plan. With CoastFIRE, you're just on cruise control with your current job, knowing even if you don't save anymore you'll still be on track to retire at your desired age.
Totally! There are different types of FIRE, and not all involve retiring immediately. Check out coastFIRE - it's basically the point at which you have enough saved that without saving more, you'll be able to retire. So you're still working, but you don't have to keep saving if you don't want to.
There's also baristaFIRE, leanFIRE, and more... I also just started r/satsFIRE :)
Thank you! Really hope you enjoy it and can find some value in it. Please ping me if you have any feedback at all, always looking to improve
I changed the wording on the tool because I think it was confusing people - it now says “Retirement Start” in the field where you plug in your starting amount.
This helps clarify that it’s not asking for your current portfolio as of this moment - it’s asking what your starting amount will be when you retire, and then stress-testing that plan so you can see if you need to make any adjustments.
Thanks again for your feedback!
Thanks, that's great feedback.
Right now, the app just simulates your retirement from start to end. It's very simple, but doesn't have a pre-retirement input area (like income from now until retirement as you mentioned).
That's a great idea though, I'll definitely implement that.
Open to all ideas, please keep 'em coming. Want this to be as useful as possible.