According to mathematicians such as Giovanni Santostasi, Stephen Perrenod, Fred Kruegar and others, bitcoin expresses a number of power laws.
A power law is a relationship between two quantities where a change in one quantity results in a relative change to the other quantity proportional to a power of the change.
For example Bitcoins price appreciation relative to time has been remarkably consistent over the past 15 years. It has increased in orders of magnitude or powers of 10 and has been predicted successfully by Giovanni Santostasi.
Santostasi discovered this power law like behaviour in 2014 and was of course met initially with scepticism.
However for the last 10 years his thesis has been born out in Bitcoins growth in price, hash rate, addresses and other variables.
It seems to be that the consistency of bitcoins behaviour cannot be only coincidence.
However legendary traders like Peter Brandt have a different perspective.
Brandt proposes the possibility albeit reluctantly that Bitcoin has already topped this cycle and is in something he calls ‘Exponential Decay’.
What does the Stacker News community think? Is Bitcoin predictable? Will it continue to hit higher and higher prices? Or might it follow a course of diminishing returns and break the power law trajectory? 🙏
a perfectly scarce asset means that it has no top right ? Guess it's going up forever! But the focus should be on trying to see your stack go up forever.
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT 28 Apr
I doubt it, but you can't rule it out.
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Predicable in the way it keeps rising in value?
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Yeah it appears to be predictable within a range. If the power law trajectory continues by early 2028 BTC will be between 100k and 912k .
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