my god is this a funny trade. HASHTAG @mega_dreamer, leeessgooo:
if Jesus Christ does return this year, are you really going to want to go to the online crypto prediction market to collect your gambling winnings?
Yes.
Lightning-based gambles like Predyx doesn't really have this issue, since I can keep holding some lightning balance _with the casino forecast market or holding it non-custodially in a channel I control. Not that big of a deal, no interest-rate opportunity cost for me.
NEAT!
Very lolz... how to trade the end of the world...
One (dumb, but funny) way to put this is that the “Yes, Jesus Christ will return in 2025” contract is a bet on interest rates going up: If short-term interest rates went up to 8%, the No contract would be worth about $0.95, so the Yes contract would be worth about $0.05 and you’d make a 40% profit.
It was never about the money, but sending a message!
Apparently, this trade comes about because Polymarket allows you to combine a Yes and a No contracts to $1... instant, infinite money. What a beauty
non-paywalled on original article here, https://newsletterhunt.com/emails/190424... and original SN post (#1001018)
What if, like the chess bets, they don't resolve/pay out...?