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221 sats \ 8 replies \ @02c42fc294 15h \ on: Saylor : Bitcoin quantum threat is a ploy by ‘yo-yo token’ sellers bitcoin
That's what we call a low-probability / high impact event: quantum computers are unlikely to become powerful enough to steal coins in the next couple of years, but if they do, almost all coins are at risk. Comparing that to a high probability / low impact (comparatively) Event like an individual users coins being stolen makes little sense. This is called fallacy of relative privation, and relies on the inability to correctly gauge the impact of low probability events.
There are any number of low-probability / high-impact events....grid going down, large custodian hacked (ie. coinbase), nuclear war, severe bug being exploited...etc...
The difference between those and QC is that some of those are hundreds of times more likely to happen than QC ever achieving anything. Yet, QC gets a disproportionate amount of media airtime....(thankfully, I guess).
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Still, it's different if one custodian gets popped, and people who (maybe unknowingly) accepted the custodian risk, or if the entire security basis of the entire Bitcoin ecosystem is broken. Coinbase isn't high impact, it's not the entire ecosystem.
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Coinbase isn't high impact, it's not the entire ecosystem.
2.2M coins being dumped on the market would crush price for a long long time. Probably almost all "crypto companies" would go bankrupt. Nearly all miners would go bankrupt....the knock on effects would be massive.
The biggest impact would be against the mentality of investors (all the ETFs except Fidelity use CB). Instantly losing 250B may push investment sentiment to "its just not worth it" mentality.
Such losses by general public would usher in a whole series of new draconian laws that may permanently impact banks ability to custody bitcoin and freeze bitcoin out of regulated economy.
Central banks would use it to say "told you so" and usher in CBDC's that had the "feature" that such hacks could be rolled back, frozen, etc.
Except that most ETF providers and Saylor use Coinbase Custody.
Popping that would be quite high impact.
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Well, it is also a very human thing to obsess around these catastrophic events. See the fear of airplane crashes vs car crashes, one gets all the attention while the other is the actual killer.
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correct. as Saylor said is more probable to loose BTC by phishing than hacking.
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