I would just like to report to the @mega_dreamer community that I sold the top.
Why did I sell? No idea, can't remember. Was just a hunch that "hm, actually, I should own the No contract here, why did I buy it?"
As @Undisciplined says, you start off small and then gradually go FULL-ON betting degen. In the Norway Chess bets I went 10x what I've done on Predyx so far.
Unfortunately, my betting track record there wasn't excellent. I made 13,000 sats — all of it from the mispricing in one of the bets when it was already a done deal. For the rest, I hedged too much (bet Magnus+Gukesh+Hikaru) and then gradually sold them off as it crystallized that Magnus would win. So, for the betting portion I roughly made my money back.
Still, it feels AWESOME when the sats are just flowing in:
What I told @Shugard at the time:
I'm clearly not a particularly good better (but arbitrageur of information). Made a net profit of about 13,000 sats, and literally all of it came from this one bet -- that I placed when it was already a done deal and underpriced
Anyway, I'm learning a bit and it's plenty fun.