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0 sats \ 7 replies \ @justin_shocknet 14 Jun \ parent \ on: Calm Before The Storm? Current Situation In DC Politics_And_Law
one known-spook was suggesting hitting Iran now is to constrain China's oil supply... public numbers imply its only 10% of their supply... so who knows... but if that's actually part of the math I'd imply that to mean stuff with China going hot sometime in the next ~6 mos
So I have read into that and China is the biggest consumer of oil from Iran... its like 2/3 or something however, the last two months China hasnt imported any US oil at all.... so they could just start that back up again they would lose a trade war chip though.
I actually dont think it would go hot with China because I think China would step on the necks of Iran's leadership first. Hell of a lot better to keep peace with the US right now then to go hot with them and unify the whole country. One thing about America.... a war bridges all the divides.
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a war bridges all the divides
All the more reason though for national security interests, of both countries, to set up something controlled... to ultimately deal with domestic issues.
The implication spook was making was that hitting Iran IS hitting China, as in that war is already hot, and to get them by the balls on energy. The hard time I have buying that is well what about Russian supply? and any hot war would close the oceans anyway...
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Yeah the energy angel I’m not sure of. Now I will say a limiting factor for Chinese imports of Russia is they only have one operational oil pipeline so there is a max there. I know they were talking about a second but I believe that went through Mongolia who flat out said no. A ton of Russia oil could be cargo shipped but ya know that takes more time than a pipeline.
Also Russia’s oil infrastructure has just been crushed the last few months or so… earlier this year they banned exporting processed fuel because there processing facilities were blown up.
At the rate Israel is going with Iran I would be stunned if they do not through back channels come back to the table. Israel is continuously flying over them hitting their missile launchers when they roll out… Iran seems to have zero defense right now and I don’t know if it cause it’s been blown up or if they are hiding it…
It could easily and quickly reach a point though now that the US sends 2-3 B2 spirits over the fortified nuclear places and drop 4/5 bunker busters and end their program. I mean we know where the sites are where it is all stored and can take it all out including the centrifuges preventing them from trying again.
I say the idea of us is growing because Iran is such a mess but they keep trying to act like they are fine
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I don't buy any of the nuclear stuff, possible that its just a regime change thing... but the energy factor has to be part of the equation (good point about the attack on Russian processing)... all wars are energy wars.
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Realistically if you want regime change at a minimum you have to take out every single spec of the nuclear program. I think out of all the last 30 year stuff this has the least to do with energy.
Irans proxies have been wild the last few years. Hamas kidnapped Americans, the Houthi’s super screwed up shipping lanes, Hezbollah and Syria were and a very heavy were an issue as well until recently.
Then having the left “college protests” supporting Hamas, Hezbollah, and honestly by default then Iran…. Well it’s easy to ignore energy because it’s infecting the US with vial antisemitism
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Welp in any case, looking forward to seeing what goes sideways by Monday