📢 Fees are now active on Predyx — here’s why.
We had to urgently roll out market fees to counter some recent spammy, evil activity clogging up the system.
💸 Buy Fee: 2% 💸 Sell Fee: 2% 🏆 Win Fee: 1%
Still no deposits. Still instant payouts. Just a cleaner battlefield for real degens.
It's a good first step. I think there might be some more elegant solutions though, that don't introduce as much friction into the system.
Thanks.
The real of reason of buy/sell was this person was trying to double sell (but in the UI it shows up a buy/sell, buy/sell). From the software perspective we've fixed the issue of double sell (parallel API attacks).
I think it is important to have an asymmetry between buying and selling: i.e. you can't get a full immediate refund by selling.
I haven't sketched it out on paper yet, but there's something here about time-preference and wanting to incentivize early purchases more than later ones.
Yes that's very thought provoking - "incentivize early purchases more than later ones."
Please let know me when you ponder more on this. We'd love to hear and implement it.
Will do
2% on each end plus a 1% win fee is a lot. I understand the need for fees but these are too high in my opinion.
It’s fine for just buying an outcome and waiting but it really disincentivizes trading.
Also I think there should have been an announcement before roll out so users could exit markets they don’t want to be in before fees hit.
Not trying to be too critical here. I will still use Predyx. Just trying to be candid with my feedback.
I try to understand every LN business from SN model of once incentives. While increasing the fees they particularly mentioned about incentivising territory owners, I think that is good but it is one of the reasons for the decrease in engagement. The other way round to it could be curtailing the territory fees and gradually increasing it with the growth in engagement.
That being said, I'm definitely interested to know what other options can be for Predyx where it can be sustainable as business without having these kinda high fees structure?
I am not against fees. I just think they are too high and I don’t think charging fees without giving any notice is the right way to do business.
yes, guilty of not informing early enough.
I'm open to suggestion and ideas - what should be an ideal amount of fees in your perspective?
We can certainly remove fees, so that people can sell and exit if they don't agree with the fees.
If you want people to buy and hold these fees are fine but if you want trading volume that should be at least half of this.
The lack of notice is what it is. You are in beta and all your users are supporters of the platform and want it to succeed.
Really sorry about "no advance notice". I will be careful in future to first discuss with the community on similar situations.
You advice is taken - we will reduce the trading fee to half i.e 1% buy, 1% sell ASAP. Please give us few hours, @emre just went to bed. Will implement it once he wakes up.
On the same note - I will try and give you market creation permission. You can can create a market by adding the liquidity - and see for yourself how much liquidity is lost on the conclusion of the market. This is an inherent problem with any AMM, and especially LMSR.
That's great. I appreciate you guys hearing the feedback and trying to work with the community.
OKC "Yes" odds are 78.94 for yes but when you try to buy, it reaches to 95%
Any way this can be a 20 basis fee and not 200 basis points?
We went with 2%, which is standard for LMSR-based markets. For context: • Manifold charges a 4% trading fee • Kalshi (non-LMSR) charges 2%
We’re still cheaper than most — and ours supports instant Lightning payouts for which we've been paying the fees. Thus it helps us keep LNAddress payouts free
Well I hope they come down. These fees seem high for bitcoin/ lightning native tech
Just to give you some insight into how LMSR works and why we needed to add fees: (Used ChatGPT for readability.)
LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) subsidizes liquidity by design. When a trader moves the market price, the system pays out more to correct predictions than it collects from wrong ones. This makes it great for price discovery — but bad for the house unless there’s high volume.
Take our Bitcoin market as an example:
This is why fees matter — not to make money off traders, but to reduce inevitable losses from subsidizing early, thin markets. We’re actively tuning the fees to the lowest sustainable level.
LMSR is powerful, but it bleeds unless you have consistent volume — and until we get there, fees are the only patch.
Uuuuh, ugh?!
No more sweet, easy, effortless trading
Yeah… sorry. Fees had to happen — here’s why:
no such thing as a free lunch friend
I think it's important for the sustainability of the business. However this also means in some way that markets will now be over at +98% for yes and at 2% for a no. Isn't it?
no - these fees applies to actual sats paid or received. This nothing to do with odds.
Thanks I've learnt it but noone is gonna buy at a loss in the end when market gets to these levels.
For instance:
Yes, now I get it. I think reducing it to 1% will help, we have to try it out.
Or get rid of buying fee after certain threshold.
Fee Update on PredyxFee Update on Predyx
We’ve officially activated market fees on Predyx. While this was always part of the long-term roadmap, recent activity forced us to accelerate the rollout. Here's why:
Thinly traded markets were consistently incurring losses. These fees help minimize that impact until we reach higher volume.
Fees enable profit-sharing with market creators, ensuring there's a reason to launch and curate quality markets.
This opens the door for crowdsourced liquidity, allowing LPs to share in fee revenue and support deeper, more efficient markets.
Some malicious activity was disrupting markets. Introducing fees adds a necessary friction to discourage abuse.
We’re committed to building a healthy, sustainable prediction ecosystem — and this is a key step forward.