Much of this is stuff we've heard elsewhere but it's nice to see it in one place.
My favorite section describes how it unwinds. Because the "infinite money glitch" may eventually get fixed and then what?
The elevated valuations of Bitcoin treasury companies have, so far, persisted in a bullish environment of rising BTC prices and strong retail interest. No public BTC treasury company has ever traded below its NAV for a sustained period. The model works only as long as the premium remains. As Matthew Sigel of VanEck notes: “Once you are trading at NAV, shareholder dilution is no longer strategic. It’s extractive.” This observation cuts to the core of the model’s vulnerability. ATM equity issuance programs (the capital engine that powers these companies) rely fundamentally on the stock trading at a premium. When a stock is valued above the per-share BTC it represents, each dollar raised through equity issuance results in accretive BTC per share growth. But once a stock price falls to levels at or near NAV, that equation reverses: equity issuance dilutes shareholder exposure to BTC rather than enhancing it. The model depends on a self-reinforcing loop:
- Premium enables capital raises
- Capital raises fund BTC accumulation
- BTC accumulation strengthens the narrative
- The narrative supports the premium
If the premium disappears, the cycle unwinds. Capital becomes more expensive, BTC purchases slow, and the narrative weakens. For now, bitcoin treasury companies continue to enjoy capital market access and investor enthusiasm. The path forward will depend on financial discipline, transparency, and the ability to grow BTC per share… not just stack more BTC. The optionality that has made these equities so attractive in a bull market could quickly become a liability in a bearish one.