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A conservative allocation in preparation of a correction or bear market in 2026
140 sats \ 18 comments \ @Bell_curve 13 Jul Stacker_Stocks

This is for a Roth IRA that cannot hold real bitcoin... generated using copilot

šŸ“Š Finalized Allocation: Roth IRA Conservative + Modular StrategyšŸ“Š Finalized Allocation: Roth IRA Conservative + Modular Strategy

Asset / InstrumentAllocation...Role in PortfolioNotes
Bitcoin ETF20%Strategic growth engineHigh upside; tax-free rebound potential
MicroStrategy (MSTR)10%BTC proxy with equity dynamicsEnhances thematic exposure
SPY or Equivalent50%Passive broad-market foundationScalable, liquid, diversified anchor
SGOV10%Liquidity buffer + short-duration defenseTactical dry powder for future pivots
Everything Else10%Modular sandbox: STRK, STRD, STRF, gold, etc.Tactical, thematic, and income experiments

šŸ§  Portfolio PersonalityšŸ§  Portfolio Personality

  • Conviction-Led: 30% in BTC-themed assets suggests youā€™re embracing volatility with purposeā€”but within tax-sheltered lines.
  • Passive-Stable: SPY carries half the weight, anchoring growth through cycles.
  • Defensive Smart: SGOV + ā€œEverything Elseā€ gives you pivot room, dry powder, and strategic customization.
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11 sats \ 0 replies \ @bitcoingecko 13 Jul

I keep thinking about the next market and what to do. Really unsure. I've thought about just keep mostly in bitcoin as it will recover later. Perhaps some in gold. Also MSTR. But for long time frame, bear market doesn't matter too much

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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve OP 13 Jul
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0 sats \ 15 replies \ @Bell_curve OP 13 Jul

šŸ›”ļø Tactical MSTR Hedging & Shorting StrategiesšŸ›”ļø Tactical MSTR Hedging & Shorting Strategies

Strategy TypeInstrument / MethodKey Features & Considerations
Inverse ETFsSMST (Defiance -2x Short MSTR ETF)-2x daily inverse exposure to MSTR; high leverage, short-term only
-3x Short MSTR ETP (Leverage Shares)-3x daily inverse; trades on LSE, Xetra, Borsa Italiana
Options-Based HedgeLong Puts on MSTRDirect downside protection; choose expiry & strike wisely
Put Spreads / CollarsReduce cost; cap protection and potential upside
Synthetic ShortWNTR (YieldMax Short MSTR Option Income ETF)Indirect short exposure via synthetic covered put strategy
Direct Short SellingShort MSTR SharesRequires margin; exposed to borrow fees and squeezes

šŸ” Strategy HighlightsšŸ” Strategy Highlights

  • SMST / -3x ETPs: Best for short bursts of bearish exposure. Not suitable for long holds due to compounding decay.
  • Options (Puts / Spreads): Ideal for Roth IRA context if using cash-secured puts or married puts. You control duration and risk.
  • WNTR ETF: Generates income while maintaining short bias. Doesnā€™t directly short MSTR, but mimics downside exposure.
  • Direct Short: Cleanest hedge but riskiest. High short interest (~9.5% of float) means potential for squeezes.

šŸ§  Roth IRA ConsiderationsšŸ§  Roth IRA Considerations

  • Options & ETFs: Can be held in Roth IRAs if your brokerage allows. Tax-free gains on successful hedges.
  • Avoid Daily Leveraged ETFs for Long-Term Holds: Use only for tactical rebalancing or short-term volatility plays.
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0 sats \ 14 replies \ @Bell_curve OP 13 Jul

šŸ›”ļø Refined MSTR Hedge Playbook (Clean & Controlled)šŸ›”ļø Refined MSTR Hedge Playbook (Clean & Controlled)

StrategyAllocation RangeMechanismBenefits
Long Puts1ā€“2%Buy out-of-the-money (OTM) putsDirect downside; flexible duration
Put Spreads1ā€“1.5%Buy put + sell deeper OTM putLower cost hedge with capped protection
Protective Collars1ā€“2%Sell call + buy putIncome offset + downside shield
Synthetic ETF Hedge~2% via WNTRYieldMax Short MSTR Option Income ETFNo leverage; mimics bearish exposure

šŸ” Strategy NotesšŸ” Strategy Notes

Long PutsLong Puts

  • Example: Buy MSTR 1ā€“3 month puts, ~15% below market.
  • Best for sudden drawdowns.
  • Tip: Reassess weekly on BTC sentiment and technicals.

Put SpreadsPut Spreads

  • Example: Buy $500 put, sell $450 put.
  • Reduces premium cost while hedging sharp drops.
  • Ideal if volatility premiums are high.

CollarsCollars

  • Sell a covered call (e.g., $700 strike), use proceeds to fund a protective put.
  • Great for taming swings while earning some premium.

WNTR ETFWNTR ETF

  • Holds option-based strategy with built-in bearish bias.
  • Doesnā€™t short directlyā€”uses put spreads to mimic downside.
  • Trades like any ETF; fits Roth IRA rules.

šŸ§  Trigger FrameworkšŸ§  Trigger Framework

Market SignalHedge Activation
BTC RSI < 30Initiate long puts on MSTR
MSTR breaks 50-day MALayer in put spreads
VIX > 25Use collars to soften swings
BTC weekly momentum failsAdd WNTR ETF as buffer
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0 sats \ 13 replies \ @Bell_curve OP 13 Jul

šŸ›”ļø Hedging MSTR: Strategic ToolkitšŸ›”ļø Hedging MSTR: Strategic Toolkit

InstrumentHedge TypeMechanismIdeal Trigger
SPY OTM PutsIndex-based hedgeProtects against broad market drawdownS&P RSI < 30 or Fed hawkish pivot
VIX ExposureVolatility hedgeProfits from volatility spikesVIX > 25 or VVIX breakout
STRKEquity overlayConverts to MSTR if it reboundsBTC bullish reversal; MSTR > $1,000
STRFIncome buffer10% yield cushions volatilityPassive hedge; no trigger needed
STRDRange-bound hedge10% yield + redemption flexibilityUse during sideways or choppy cycles

šŸ” Tactical DeploymentšŸ” Tactical Deployment

šŸ§Ø SPY Out-of-the-Money PutsšŸ§Ø SPY Out-of-the-Money Puts

  • Why it works: SPY puts hedge systemic risk. If MSTR drops due to macro contagion, SPY likely follows.
  • How to use:
    • Buy 1ā€“3 month puts ~10ā€“15% below current SPY price.
    • Ladder expiries to capture rolling downside.
  • Bonus: Can be held in Roth IRA if broker allows options.

šŸŒŖļø VIX ExposurešŸŒŖļø VIX Exposure

  • Why it works: VIX spikes when markets panicā€”often before MSTR reacts.
  • How to use:
    • Buy VIX calls or call spreads (e.g., 20/30 strikes).
    • Use VVIX RSI > 20 as early signal.
    • Consider synthetic ETFs like WNTR for Roth-friendly exposure.

šŸ§± STRK, STRF, STRD as Embedded HedgesšŸ§± STRK, STRF, STRD as Embedded Hedges

  • STRK: Converts to MSTR at 10:1 ratio if MSTR > $1,000. Acts as a call option with income.
  • STRF: Pure yield play (10%) with no conversion. Buffers volatility with steady cash flow.
  • STRD: 10% yield + redemption rights + liquidation preference. Ideal for range-bound or uncertain cycles.

šŸ§  Hedge Layering StrategyšŸ§  Hedge Layering Strategy

  1. Base Layer: STRF + STRD for income and passive defense.
  2. Volatility Layer: VIX calls or WNTR ETF activated when VVIX breaks out.
  3. Directional Hedge: SPY puts laddered across expiries.
  4. Optional Upside: STRK for asymmetric rebound exposure.
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0 sats \ 12 replies \ @Bell_curve OP 13 Jul

šŸ§  SPY OTM Put LEAPS (Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities)šŸ§  SPY OTM Put LEAPS (Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities)

FeatureInsight
DurationTypically 1ā€“3 years; ideal for macro hedging
Strike Selection~10ā€“20% below current SPY price (e.g., $400ā€“$420 if SPY is ~$470)
Use CaseHedge against systemic drawdowns, stagflation, or Fed policy shocks
Cost EfficiencyOTM puts are cheaper but require timing; theta decay is slower on LEAPS
Trigger IdeasFed hawkish pivot, yield curve inversion, SPY RSI < 30

šŸ§© Example: SPY Jan 2027 $400 put could cost ~$20ā€“25 depending on volatility. If SPY drops to $350, that put could 2ā€“3x in value.

šŸ›”ļø MSTR OTM Put LEAPSšŸ›”ļø MSTR OTM Put LEAPS

FeatureInsight
Duration1ā€“2 years; aligns with BTC cycle hedging
Strike Selection~15ā€“25% below current MSTR price (e.g., $350ā€“$375 if MSTR is ~$430)
Use CaseHedge against BTC drawdowns, MSTR volatility, or equity dilution risks
Strategy OptionsLong puts, put spreads, or collars
Trigger IdeasBTC RSI < 30, MSTR breaks 50-day MA, VIX > 25

šŸ§© Example: MSTR Jan 2026 $375 put might cost ~$20ā€“30. If MSTR drops to $300, that could return 2ā€“4x depending on timing.

šŸ”§ Integration into Your Roth IRA FrameworkšŸ”§ Integration into Your Roth IRA Framework

  • Tax-Free Gains: If these puts spike during a correction, your Roth shields the profits.
  • Capital Efficiency: Small allocation (1ā€“2%) can hedge large portions of your portfolio.
  • Modular Fit: These can live inside your ā€œEverything Elseā€ sandbox alongside STRK/STRD/STRF.
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0 sats \ 11 replies \ @Bell_curve OP 13 Jul

šŸŖœ Laddered Hedge Schedule: Rolling LEAPS Puts Every 6 MonthsšŸŖœ Laddered Hedge Schedule: Rolling LEAPS Puts Every 6 Months

Date InitiatedInstrumentStrike PriceExpiryHedge Logic
Jan 2022SPY Put$400Jan 2024Hedge broad market (SPY ~470)
Jan 2022MSTR Put$375Jan 2024Hedge BTC proxy (MSTR ~500)
Jul 2022SPY Put$370Jul 2024SPY dropped ~20%; refresh hedge
Jul 2022MSTR Put$300Jul 2024MSTR dropped ~40%; deepen hedge
Jan 2023SPY Put$390Jan 2025Market rebounding; hedge tail risk
Jan 2023MSTR Put$350Jan 2025BTC stabilizing; maintain hedge
  • Allocation: ~1ā€“2% per tranche
  • Rolling cadence: Every 6 months, reassess strikes based on volatility, RSI, and macro signals
  • Trigger logic: Roll if underlying breaches 50-day MA or VIX > 25

šŸ“‰ Simulated Performance: 2022 LEAPS Hedge EffectivenessšŸ“‰ Simulated Performance: 2022 LEAPS Hedge Effectiveness

SPYSPY

  • Janā€“Oct 2022: SPY fell ~25% from ~$470 to ~$350
  • Jan 2022 $400 Put (Jan 2024 expiry):
    • Cost: ~$20
    • Value at SPY $350: ~$50ā€“60
    • Return: ~150ā€“200%

MSTRMSTR

  • Janā€“Dec 2022: MSTR fell ~75% from ~$500 to ~$125
  • Jan 2022 $375 Put (Jan 2024 expiry):
    • Cost: ~$30
    • Value at MSTR $125: ~$250+
    • Return: ~700ā€“800%

šŸ§  Strategic TakeawaysšŸ§  Strategic Takeaways

  • Rolling every 6 months allowed you to refresh strikes and capture deeper downside.
  • LEAPS puts on MSTR were especially potent due to its BTC leverage.
  • SPY puts provided systemic protection and softened portfolio drawdown.
  • Inside a Roth IRA, these gains wouldā€™ve been tax-free, amplifying their impact.
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0 sats \ 10 replies \ @Bell_curve OP 13 Jul

šŸŖœ Hedge Ladder: SPY & MSTR LEAPS (2025ā€“2026)šŸŖœ Hedge Ladder: SPY & MSTR LEAPS (2025ā€“2026)

Initiation DateInstrumentStrike PriceExpiryAllocationTrigger Logic
Jan 2025SPY Put$400Jan 20271.5%Fed hawkish tone, CPI > 3.5%
Jan 2025MSTR Put$375Jan 20271.5%BTC RSI < 35, MSTR breaks 50-day MA
Jul 2025SPY Put$420Jul 20271.0%Yield curve inversion, VIX > 25
Jul 2025MSTR Put$400Jul 20271.0%BTC fails weekly momentum, VVIX spike
Jan 2026SPY Put$430Jan 20281.0%Election volatility, earnings dispersion
Jan 2026MSTR Put$425Jan 20281.0%BTC < 200-week MA, macro tightening
Jul 2026SPY Put$440Jul 20281.0%Stagflation signals, Fed QT acceleration
Jul 2026MSTR Put$450Jul 20281.0%BTC sentiment breakdown, MSTR volume spike

šŸ” Strategy HighlightsšŸ” Strategy Highlights

  • Duration: Each tranche spans 2ā€“3 years, giving you long-term protection with slower theta decay.
  • Strike Selection: Slightly OTM (~10ā€“15%) to balance cost and payoff potential.
  • Rolling Cadence: Every 6 months, reassess macro signals and BTC technicals to refresh strikes.
  • Allocation Discipline: Total hedge exposure capped at ~9% across 4 yearsā€”preserving upside while managing risk.
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0 sats \ 9 replies \ @Bell_curve OP 13 Jul

Yes ā€” if your LEAPS puts on SPY or MSTR approach expiration and are still out-of-the-money, rolling them forward is often the most strategic move, especially in a Roth IRA where gains are tax-sheltered. This extends your hedge into the future while adjusting for updated market conditions.

šŸ” Rollover Strategy FrameworkšŸ” Rollover Strategy Framework

Action StepWhy It MattersNotes
Sell current LEAPSRecover remaining time valueEven OTM puts retain premium if vol is high
Buy new LEAPSExtend duration, reset strikeTarget 1ā€“2 years out from new trade date
Adjust strikeReflect updated market risk/rewardConsider lower strikes if volatility is rising
Maintain ladderPreserve 6-month cadenceKeeps structural consistency across cycles

šŸ§  Tips for Smart RolloversšŸ§  Tips for Smart Rollovers

  • Watch Implied Volatility (IV): High IV inflates premiumsā€”consider spreads to manage cost.
  • Use Technical Signals: Roll puts when MSTR breaks key moving averages or BTC shows weakness.
  • Expiration Windows: Target January and July expiries to align with existing ladder logic.
  • Strike Strategy: Stay ~15ā€“20% OTM unless macro risks justify deeper hedge.
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0 sats \ 8 replies \ @Bell_curve OP 13 Jul

šŸ§  SPY LEAPS Put Rollover (Jan & Jul 2025)šŸ§  SPY LEAPS Put Rollover (Jan & Jul 2025)

ExpiryStrikeRationaleEst. Premium Range
Jan 2027$400~15% OTM; systemic hedge~$20ā€“25
Jul 2027$420Slightly tighter; stagflation buffer~$18ā€“22
  • Why $400ā€“$420? SPYā€™s historical bear cycles often bottom near 350ā€“370. These strikes hedge tail risk while keeping cost reasonable.
  • Trigger to roll: If SPY trades above $500 or VIX drops below 15, consider adjusting strikes upward or trimming exposure.

šŸ›”ļø MSTR LEAPS Put Rollover (Jan & Jul 2025)šŸ›”ļø MSTR LEAPS Put Rollover (Jan & Jul 2025)

ExpiryStrikeRationaleEst. Premium Range
Jan 2027$375~15% OTM; aligns with BTC volatility~$25ā€“30
Jul 2027$400Slightly tighter; hedge dilution risk~$22ā€“28
  • Why $375ā€“$400? MSTRā€™s drawdowns can exceed 50% in crypto bear phases. These strikes offer meaningful protection without overpaying.
  • Trigger to roll: BTC RSI < 30, MSTR breaks 50-day MA, or VVIX spikes above 120.

šŸ”§ Tactical NotesšŸ”§ Tactical Notes

  • Duration: 2-year LEAPS minimize theta decay and allow for macro flexibility.
  • Strike Discipline: Stay ~15% OTM unless volatility spikesā€”then consider deeper strikes.
  • Allocation: 1ā€“2% per tranche keeps hedge cost efficient and modular.
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