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A bunch of alarming shit www.derekthompson.org/p/the-26-most-important-ideas-for-2026

3890 sats \ 65 comments \ @elvismercury 11 Dec BooksAndArticles

(Actual article title: The 26 Most Important Ideas For 2026)

Lots of interesting things in this, too many to linger on. Here's just one:

A systematic review of 71 studies with 98,000 participants published in 2025 reached an alarming finding. Across the dozens of studies, heavy short-form video users showed moderate deficits in attention, inhibitory control, and memory. In the chart below, you can see a consistently negative, if also heterogeneous, relationship between heavy short-form video use and problems with attention, memory, and control.

...

But taken together, [the studies] suggest a plausible mechanism: a daily diet of hyper-rewarding, rapid-fire stimuli may gradually reshape attention and regulatory systems in ways that weaken our attentional control.

This hypothesis is, neuroscientifically speaking, extremely plausible. One can (and ought to) look as the routines of daily life as a kind of training. The natural question that arises is: what are you training yourself for? The idea that most of the industrialized world is training themselves in the manner described above is consistent with my experience and also horrifying.

Anyway, lots of thought-provoking things. Relevant to this recent post about reading, too.

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367 sats \ 44 replies \ @grayruby 11 Dec

This is very depressing. I definitely agree with the casinoification of the economy. All these apps that were designed to democratize and gamify both finance and sports betting paired with young minds that are addicted to dopamine is probably a very dangerous cocktail.

Young men becoming degenerate gamblers is a very nihilistic and insecure way to live. "what's the point, I am never going to rich or have a beautiful house or find a great mate so let me yolo into memecoins and try to turn thousands into millions". In some ways I don't fault them for this attitude, this is the behaviour the fiat system incentivizes but I think we really need to push back against it. Young men spending all their time gambling on sports and memecoins would be better suited learning a skill, plying it, living below their means and reinvesting in themselves, finding a tribe (like minded people) and meeting in the real world. And for the love of god go talk to women in the real world, not online.

And that's all I have to say about that. I will go back to degen gambling on sports now and ignoring my wife. Haha

220 sats \ 41 replies \ @SimpleStacker 11 Dec

Statistics (which i'm too lazy to look up and link to right now) show that young men are actually trending more conservative in terms of desiring a more trad lifestyle: getting married, having kids, etc. But I think the stats also show that there's a growing despair that they'll ever be able to achieve that. At the same time, women are trending less trad than ever. The gap between young mens and womens' outlook on life has never been wider, afaict. It's very concerning to see. Every generation worries about the next, but the statistics seem to look worse than ever before.

171 sats \ 19 replies \ @ek 12 Dec

I don't want to be that guy, but I think someone has to be that guy, so I'm going to be that guy who mentions that, yes, he thinks his generation is mostly fucked (ha!) when it comes to dating.

I’ve more or less accepted that it's very likely I’m not going to marry, I'm not going to have children, but I might own a house thanks to bitcoin, but I’m not even sure if I want that, also thanks to bitcoin.

But I'll be rich enough to fly planes for fun, so I guess I shouldn't complain? 🤔

20 sats \ 9 replies \ @elvismercury OP 12 Dec

yes, he thinks his generation is mostly fucked (ha!) when it comes to dating.

Why? "Dating" is overbroad, so maybe that's what I'm confused about. Do you mean:

getting married
having a family
being in a stable long-term relationship
something else

I've read some Gen-Z stuff on the topic but it's never made a ton of sense to me, since the arguments have generally been non-economic ones, so I'd be interested in your perspective.

121 sats \ 8 replies \ @ek 12 Dec

Do you mean:

I meant your first three, because for me, one follows from the other: a stable long-term relationship → getting married → having a family.

So by “dating”, I meant starting that journey with a relationship that has the potential to become something long-term and stable.

since the arguments have generally been non-economic ones

Why did the non-economic arguments not make sense to you?

I think my argument is also not economic, but a mix of culture and politics, so maybe nothing new to you. It’s just that I think society is deeply divided about many things: old vs. young; rich vs. poor; male vs. female; capitalism vs. socialism/communism; heterosexual vs. homosexual; cisgender vs. transgender; kids vs. no kids; science vs. populism; inclusive language vs. existing language. It makes it really frustrating to find someone who doesn’t think you’re a bad person because of X, as if only X matters.

And then you can also add social media, online dating, and all that stuff to this. I tried online dating, and it was soul-crushing. Maybe I should try again, but I really think it’s not for me. Does it make sense to change to fit into a society you don’t even like?

But I also think I’ve probably just been looking in the wrong places so far. I used to be politically left, but it turned out that women from the political left are far from what I want. I also met a girl who was far on the right (from my perspective), but she wasn’t what I wanted either. I’m also to blame, because bitcoin is one of those polarizing topics, and I didn’t necessarily handle that topic well when it came up.

I think the "End of the World" party from Mr. Robot might be something my generation (Gen Y) can resonate with, and Gen Z even more. Doesn't that mean there's a trend?

75 sats \ 5 replies \ @SimpleStacker 12 Dec

I tried online dating, and it was soul-crushing

What was soul-crushing about it? Sorry, I grew up in an era where online dating wasn't common, so I don't know much about it and never tried it.

I do know a number of couples who found their eventual spouse through online dating apps though. Actually, I know of at least 4 in my own social circles.

20 sats \ 4 replies \ @ek 12 Dec

You don't get any matches, you don't get any messages¹, and the app constantly reminds you that you can pay (more) to get "more matches" (but 0 times anything is still 0, haha). All the profiles look fake af, the interactions feel fake af, and nothing about swiping left or right seems to bring me closer to "real human connection." It's more like the opposite: getting used to and accepting the lack of real human connection, and realizing that we're all alone at home, trying to connect through apps (dating, social media, etc.), even though we're aware that these apps don't have our interests in mind. And that's how you're supposed to find someone nowadays? What is NOT soul-crushing about this? haha

I do know a number of couples who found their eventual spouse through online dating apps though. Actually, I know of at least 4 in my own social circles.

Yes, I think most couples I know did find each other through dating apps. But it doesn't change the fact it's a horrible experience.

One time I even got a message, but it turned out it was just a bot marketing something. ↩

64 sats \ 3 replies \ @SimpleStacker 12 Dec

dang.. i just wonder what the experience for those people was like. Like how many matches did they get before they found "the one", how soul crushing was it, how many times did they think about giving up, etc. You know what, maybe I should actually just ask some of them!

Also, i dunno what this means, but all of the couples I know who got married through dating apps were using one called "Coffee Meets Bagel".

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120 sats \ 1 reply \ @elvismercury OP 12 Dec

Why did the non-economic arguments not make sense to you?

I expressed it badly: I've seen economic arguments that it's hard to get started on a family by most of the standard definitions (have a house, some economic security) and how that would cause perverse effects is easy enough to understand. The other class of arguments tend to range over much larger territory, and I didn't know which things you were talking about, but now I do thanks to your elaborated answer.

It makes it really frustrating to find someone who doesn’t think you’re a bad person because of X, as if only X matters.

I wish I was still in the game because I'm v curious about this. It seems like everybody is feeling this same thing, no? Nobody likes what it's doing to them. Which seems like something you could unite over. Like, if your profile called it out. "I'm looking to connect w/ someone and not get lost in these stupid labels and tribalisms and all that." But maybe that's naiive.

I can say, not from online dating but from life, even from SN, which is kind of a hostile environment for this kind of thing, which makes it a good example: putting yourself out there, earnestly, makes you a target for stupid bullshit, but there's always people who are hungry for real interaction, and they respond. It's always happened, to such a degree that it seems corny: put yourself out there, be real, have positive regard for people by default, and people matching that description turn up in all sorts of places.

Again, not denying your own experience. Dating is its own weird game. I wish I could play still, just to see what it's like now. Although from what you're reporting, maybe it would erode one of my handful of comforting beliefs about the world :(

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 12 Dec

It's always happened, to such a degree that it seems corny: put yourself out there, be real, have positive regard for people by default, and people matching that description turn up in all sorts of places.

You are right, which is why I'm also maintaining my blog, and I conveniently left this part out to get my point better across

88 sats \ 7 replies \ @itsrealfake 23h

dude, you're so young and everything is in flux.

don't hold out for a thing but if you want to find an emotional partnership it's well within your capability.

"lawyer up, hit the gym"

its not only a mantra, its the truth.

you can explore social environments you can't imagine. I would recommend Mars College... at the risk of destabilizing SN's development efforts, ping me if you want a reference

21 sats \ 6 replies \ @ek 12h

Thank you!

You are right, this was more of an emotional outburst, miserably attempting to speak for a whole generation, than anything else. See #1332659 and #1333877.

Mars College

You mean this?

at the risk of destabilizing SN's development efforts

I don't work here anymore, so I already destabilized it as much as I can

ping me if you want a reference

Where? I'm currently doing #1299187.

20 sats \ 5 replies \ @itsrealfake 3h

Yes, that's the spot.

Technically possible to do the two things (mars + other thing) concurrently, but it wouldn't maximize the benefits of either and you'd need to wait for the '27 Applications to open 9-ish months from now if you want to attend, their season/semester runs Jan - April

Of course, you'd be welcomed to visit if you wound up in that part of California for a moment.

Where?

I have an npub in my profile. I can share a burner email there too, I suppose.

#1299187.

Oh cool! Enjoy that :)

51 sats \ 4 replies \ @SimpleStacker 3h

Mars College

Sorry, hope I don't sound too critical, but isn't this just LARPing?

Does it really count as off grid living if you have to source all your construction materials and equipment from civilization? You might build a village but it won't be sustainable in the long run without continual contact with outside manufacturing resources and communication services. What then is the point of being "off grid"?

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @itsrealfake 2h

well, you're not wrong that it depends on civilization. it's a classroom for testing boundaries like shelter and utilities for a digital lifestyle..

imagine getting food for 60 people in the desert... not gonna happen without having a significant support.

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20 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 12 Dec

I’ve more or less accepted that it's very likely I’m not going to marry, I'm not going to have children

I should have mentioned that I know that, with this mindset, it’s basically a self-fulfilling prophecy, so I don't actually think like that all the time.

87 sats \ 19 replies \ @elvismercury OP 11 Dec

I'm sympathetic to both of your points:

every generation thinks the next is utterly ruined
right now feels (to me) acutely bad

... but then I think that maybe, wrt #2, I am exquisitely sensitive to certain flavors of ruin, and see it clearly, and see that it's worse than ever. But then I think that every generation may have had their own particularly fine-tuned feature detectors.

For instance, there are people alive now for whom the prospect of men marrying each other and paying money to impregnate someone for a sperm cocktail baby surely predicted the end-times; that worry seems absurd to me, but I have an entirely different mental ecology as a function of my path and era.

It's a foreignness that's hard to simulate, I think.

20 sats \ 18 replies \ @fourrules 11 Dec

the prospect of men marrying each other and paying money to impregnate someone for a sperm cocktail baby surely predicted the end-times

Renting people's reproductive capacity is abhorrent in the same sense as cannibalism. It's not like renting their labour. So yeah, end-times is on point.

140 sats \ 5 replies \ @elvismercury OP 11 Dec

Bryan Caplan occasionally does posts where he makes a big list of things that seemed abhorrent and hideously unnatural over the years, that now we don't think twice about. This seems like that, to me.

The bigger class of concerning things, imo, are things we don't think twice about now that our successors will one day look as monstrous in the same way we're stunned that our ancestors thought slavery was fine.

141 sats \ 4 replies \ @billytheked 12 Dec

things we don't think twice about now that our successors will one day look as monstrous

Hm. Wrt slavers, I think we can either excuse them because of moral relativism, or not, and say they should have known better.

Do you think we ought not to be excused for our follies on this principle?

Or maybe we should know better about certain things, making our behaviors inexcusable. Then I would wonder what these are as well.

40 sats \ 3 replies \ @elvismercury OP 12 Dec

Or maybe we should know better about certain things, making our behaviors inexcusable. Then I would wonder what these are as well.

The only possible audience for such an audit is yourself; and therefore you're the only one who can say what's on that list.

I do wonder if most people go around, as I do, knowing they're doing terrible things, and do them anyway, because they can, because it's normal and nobody's stopping them, and they get by through a willful act of looking-away.

Or whether the wrongness doesn't even occur to them, and so there's nothing to look away from.

And I don't know which I think is worse.

142 sats \ 2 replies \ @billytheked 12 Dec

With respect to your contrarianism, a few more questions:

The only possible audience for such an audit is yourself; and therefore you're the only one who can say what's on that list.

If we agree to leave it up to the individual to judge the rightness/wrongness (or wrongness/more wrongness, as you seem to suggest) of their actions, then shouldn't we also establish what measuring stick they need to use?

If it's the same one, or at least similar, in the past and future, then haven't we contradicted ourselves?

If it is different, then isn’t that quite the quandary, since then the number of lashing owed to, say, the persecutors of Jean d'Arc, depended on how much we are willing to admit that our ruler looks the same as theirs?

As for what I think, if I compared my own wongness/more wrongness with theirs, I'd say I am still in good shape, because, at least to me, there does seem to be something definitely wrong about persecuting a teenager for her heresy in claiming to have had visions of Saint Michael.

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20 sats \ 11 replies \ @ek 11 Dec

Renting people's reproductive capacity is abhorrent in the same sense as cannibalism

Why?

20 sats \ 10 replies \ @fourrules 12 Dec

First try to understand why cannibalism is abhorrent, malum in se, and rather than just abnormal.

If you find yourself justifying cannibalism you'll be able to justify buying babies like IKEA furniture.

But the truth is that children from surrogacy tend to feel that their surrogate parent exploited their real mothers. These feelings are gaslit, and in extreme circumstances the surrogate parents cut off the children the way they would never have been cut off by real parents.

Bottom line is that people literally cannot be owned or bought, and if you try to buy a child you're only renting the experience of parenthood, not the real thing, hence those relationships are emotionally easier to sever from both sides.

Renting or buying a person's labour is not exploitation if the person is getting better at something, increasing their own capacity rather than draining it.

47 sats \ 9 replies \ @ek 12 Dec

I still don't understand why you compare something that’s—in my opinion—pretty close to adopting children to people eating each other.

If parents don’t want their child and I adopt it, you think this is as abhorrent as me eating other people?

This is what I'm hearing, and tbh, it sounds quite ridiculous.

20 sats \ 8 replies \ @fourrules 12 Dec

Surrogacy is nothing like adoption if the parent isn't buying the child.

If you bought it isn't a possession. You own it. But that person you bought has free will, they literally cannot be bought, it's technically impossible. The relationship you have with the purchased child is nothing like the adoptive process for a child whose parents haven't had the capacity to raise them. The purchased child will silently or publicly reject the relationship in favour of the parent they lost, but the taboo against speaking out is enormous because the surrogate parents can and do withhold resources.

Purchasing the experience of parenthood is a scummy way to exploit people in poverty.

Notice that in adoption the adoptive parents are told to tell them that they have been adopted from an early age, and to explain the situation, and to enable bridges to their real parents if feasible. It wasn't like that in the past, but we learned. That's not the case with surrogates.

Listen to the video by Olivia Maurel.

Cannibalism is using a person as an object, consuming them. Modern surrogacy is a consumptive act, like buying furniture from IKEA.

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94 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 11 Dec

I think this is right. Older generations have been saying "those darn kids" "this is going to fry your brain" etc. But it does feel the sexes are rowing in two different directions in a lot of ways.

80 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury OP 11 Dec

Agreed with all of this. I would only add: young women seem to have their own flavor, it's just pointed in a slightly different direction. Freya India writes persuasively on this topic.

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @krispy_donkey 11 Dec

Interesting thoughts, thank you. But actually my small zap is for the Forrest Gump reference, wish such things were more common.

74 sats \ 6 replies \ @Undisciplined 11 Dec

I recently unsubscribed from most of the political pods I’ve been listening to for years.

Something like this “what are you training for?” question was part of that.

69 sats \ 5 replies \ @elvismercury OP 11 Dec

Interesting! Do you have an answer to that question (e.g., an aspirational answer) that was inconsistent w/ the listening habit, or did you unsubscribe bc the implicit answer was one you didn't like?

122 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined 11 Dec

Yeah, I edited out a couple of inarticulate attempts at explaining it from my original reply.

Basically, I don't think being so obsessed with things I have no control over and that evoke overwhelmingly negative feelings is very additive to my life. That those things are "important", I realized, is not particularly relevant to whether I should spend my time on them.

I can spend my time focusing on things I enjoy or on things within my control that impact my wellbeing. That path seems more likely to go someplace good.

69 sats \ 2 replies \ @SimpleStacker 11 Dec

I basically agree with you, but I'm also seeing the danger of being totally checked out of politics. So many people in California are so oblivious of politics that they're letting bad policies and bad politicians run rampant. Then, if you want to talk politics with them they're like "oh I hate talking politics"

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 12 Dec

I think it's about the amount I was letting it consume me. I already know what my positions are on any normal political topic and I'm happy to discuss politics when people bring it up. I just don't need to go out of my way to soak in it.

69 sats \ 0 replies \ @SimpleStacker 12 Dec

Yeah, I think it's best to at least have thought about it carefully at some point in your life and be willing to discuss it. Agree with not letting it consume your time or mental energy. It's kinda like a natural disaster. For the most part, there isn't much you can do about it

69 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury OP 12 Dec

Basically, I don't think being so obsessed with things I have no control over and that evoke overwhelmingly negative feelings is very additive to my life.

Can relate. It's the curse of the curious person, to have to resist the temptation to indulge in things that are undeniably important but unproductive in any good sense.

150 sats \ 1 reply \ @Scoresby 11 Dec

You get sats for the post title - article title contrast.

102 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury OP 11 Dec

Thank you for appreciating my craft.

74 sats \ 1 reply \ @nym 11 Dec

I've definitely experienced this and noticed a recovery when I stopped, and started reading books again. It felt like my thoughts flowed smoothly again instead of jumping around.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury OP 11 Dec

Same. Since I've been on "sabbatical" for 7 weeks I've started reading fiction (in book form) voraciously again, and it's like waking up to myself. Oh yeah, I remember when the inside of my head felt like this, it's nice.

I never want to go back. In fact, I want to keep pushing forward, whatever that means.

53 sats \ 1 reply \ @winteryeti 11 Dec

Interesting. I always thought it was me, but I never learned well from video. I always needed to read concepts from books or written material, preferably printed out. I still use books extensively for learning new concepts and video only for entertainment or white noise.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury OP 11 Dec

IME video is good for an orthogonal set of things, and is clearly superior for those things. For most of the things I care about, books / text are a big win, though.

29 sats \ 1 reply \ @plebpoet 11 Dec

like rats in a lab

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury OP 11 Dec

Rats that built their own lab.

27 sats \ 0 replies \ @SimpleStacker 11 Dec

Training themselves to respond in predictable ways to manipulable stimuli. Soon, if not already, people skilled at creating short-term videos will become highly prized consultants for anyone that wants to exert social control.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @OriginalSize 3h

Josh Waitzkin put it well recently on the Huberman pod. You're either training quality in yourself or you're training yourself to do mediocrity/shit.

So mind what you're training. Speaking of which I gotta go.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @denlillaapan 8h

Totally missed this. Terrifying

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @SHA256man 11 Dec

"Train up a child in the way he should go: and when he is old, he will not depart from it." Proverbs 22:6 KJV

Linnér A, Almgren M (2020). "Epigenetic programming - The important first 1000 days". Acta Paediatrica. 109 (3): 443–452. abstract

i am really behind on my posts... maybe that's the appropriate strategy, so that conscious stackers can catch up;

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 11 Dec

All very interesting but zero mention of China and how it has won the trade war and without Chinas rare earths the USA cannot fight a war of any scale.

Footnotes