Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.
Due to the recent government shutdown, this initial report for the third quarter of 2025 replaces the release of the advance estimate originally scheduled for October 30 and the second estimate originally scheduled for November 26.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in the second quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.9 percent, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent.
I will note that Q3 is when hundreds of thousands of displaced feds hit the labor market, while still drawing their government salaries.
Shifting people from nonproductive government jobs to productive private ones is great, but the double-dipped salaries might be causing a small distortion.
Great insight!
Thanks! There’s also an expectation that tariffs will mechanically raise the price level, which will look like GDP growth even though it really isn’t.
Some commentary about this: #1370195
It's not all sunshine and roses
Well, it looks like US people take personal finance much seriously. Here we don't even buy insurance. Most people remained insurance less and now rely government scheme which has very recently health insured almost all.
What I mean, If people stop spending, governments start caring for you.
Most people in the US actually get their health insurance from their companies. It probably accounts for 20% or more of the typical person's compensation.
I see. There's nothing like this here. Everyone who holds a savings bank account and does not hold any other insurance, is insured for about $2000 upon death.
Health insurances have not gained much popularity here. Government runs a scheme which provides about $5000k health benefits to those who are under income tax slab, which is about 95% of population here on papers. Govt data says that about 60% population is now insured under the scheme.
Is health insurance by companies is something mandatory by law?
And do these companies deduct insurance premiums Outta salaries?
Yes, employers of a certain size are mandated by law to provide health insurance to their employees. But the exact details of what's required are fairly complex.
It varies. Most employers pay about 80% of the employee's health insurance premium directly, and the employee will pay the remaining 20%.
When people talk about salaries, they usually do not include what the employer is paying for their health insurance.
The global stage is a pressure chamber right now. I don't understand that 92 percent of GDP growth came from AI investment.
Not wages. Not productivity.
Mostly data centers and capital spending.
Strip AI out and growth is nearly flat.
Markets are dancing like nothing’s wrong but every macro signal says otherwise.
Oil sanctions tightening.
Shadow fleets facing a crackdown.
Black Sea insurance premiums spiking. EU–China tariff retaliation locked and loaded. Iran nuclear risk creeping back into the frame.
South China Sea flashpoints multiplying. Cyber warfare incidents rising fast.
These aren’t “possible risks” they’re active events. All of them. At once.
Astro cycles agree Dhanishta to Shatabhisha points to whipsaws, sudden extremes, traders moving on emotion rather than logic...