They were wrong about the dystopic effects that cryptography would have on society. I noticed this reading through their popular essays of the 90s. Ultimately every government, school, application, client, and server adopted cryptography and the internet went mainstream. Of course the cypherpunk ethos lives, but I wonder what we're wrong about, because I feel something in this regard. The motif of the archived cypherpunk mailing list is this:
They're very much like us, startlingly so, only with 80s and 90s lingo.
And so many of their problems then, they seem so trivial today. I think we're wrong about bitcoin L1 being the layer people use and interact with. Few will. And still fewer over time. Mainstream masses are not coming to bitcoin because they give a damn about privacy or decentralization. Look at the top 10 apps (spyware) on Apple's Appstore and tell me otherwise. They won't be maxis either. They'll be users. And they'll come because it speaks the language of the masses (tap, swipe, click) and because their own money becomes (on the x-axis of any given year) more volatile than bitcoin is. They won't understand how bitcoin works anymore than they do the car they drive, the Internet, or their television.
And that's fine.
But with this comes potential tradeoffs in terms of censorship resistance, and too, directionally centralizing forces. This is why it's so important to get Lightning right. We're at the point the internet was in the early 90s, where design patterns are critical. And I get frustrated seeing this fascination with messing about L1, trying to add forks, drivechains, vaults, covenants, and other junk it doesn't need. I mean fuck, I don't even know anyone with a Taproot address yet. All concerns need to move from BIPs to BOLTs.
āˆž/21M
I think we're wrong about bitcoin L1 being the layer people use and interact with. Few will. And still fewer over time. Mainstream masses are not coming to bitcoin because they give a damn about privacy or decentralization. Look at the top 10 apps (spyware) on Apple's Appstore and tell me otherwise. They won't be maxis either. They'll be users. And they'll come because it speaks the language of the masses (tap, swipe, click) and because their own money becomes (on the x-axis of any given year) more volatile than bitcoin is. They won't understand how bitcoin works anymore than they do the car they drive, the Internet, or their television.
This is absolutely on point. There's three things we need to focus on:
  1. We have to make self-custody, payments, and running nodes as easy, convenient, and reliable as possible to outcompete more centralized services. Yeah, it means that more advanced features like UTXO selection, coin join, etc will need to be automated, hidden in the "advanced" menu, or just simply kept to apps/devices for advanced users.
  2. Use Bitcoin to improve and take over existing services and infrastructure. Yes this means things like using Bitcoin to facilitate fiat payments.
  3. Educate people about the downsides of fiat money. This is distinct from educating people directly about Bitcoin. One leads naturally to the other and it doesn't make them feel like you're selling them something. If normies ask about Bitcoin, keep it very simplistic. "Its like digital gold/asset that can't be controlled by a company or country. Its also very extremely hard to hack."
reply
Agreed. And your #3 is a real good subtle point: fiat edu first, leads to understanding bitcoin.
reply
This is the way.
reply
think we're wrong about bitcoin L1 being the layer people use and interact with.
i dont think anyone actually thinks this.
reply
Plenty of bitcoiners hate the LN. I just talked to the Samurai devs today about their hatred of it.
reply
I don't feel the cypherpunks were wrong about anything at all... They foresaw the correct outcomes if they hadn't taken action... And were successful in their fight against these things, like the clipper chip and of course the export of munitions. And then later things too, like, ahem, central banking.
Were the "allies wrong" about Hitler conquering all of Europe?
reply
No, but cryptography didn't empower citizens to overthrow governments, to establish Anarcho Capitalist communities, or allow the commonplace assassination of officials (Assassination Politics). They were right about a lot and an important group. The cryptographic-enabled dystopia never came.
reply
I think we might be wrong about the inevitability of bitcoin succeeding as a money standard if it can't continue scaling its properties into layers with a simple UX.
We need to get bitcoin to be better as money before we start focusing on other use cases. It can be better money or different than money, but probably not both.
reply
šŸŽÆ Yes.
reply
What most bitcoiners really get wrong
#1: Bitcoin is valuable, because it's scarce (the 21m narrative).
#2: Hodl, but dont spend. << it's a corrolary to #1
Pure scarcity means nothing. My nose hair is a scarcity, yet it's still worthless.
What matters is Demand (=use case), in relation is to (limited) supply (=scarcity). If people do not use Bitcoin, or if the next best alternative serves the purpose just as well, then the scarcity itself is just irrelevant.
The single most important propertiy of Bitcoin is its censorship resistance. Its ability to make transactions that THEY dont want you do make.
reply
We are definitely wrong about Ordinals and Inscription
reply
Elucidate please.
reply
Current times are telling. As we see now, the masses are hyped about JPEGs on L1.
reply
Always learning lots just reading these + comments!
reply
I think we could be wrong on how quickly fiat will collapse. It could be another 100 drawn out years of a slow dollar death
reply
Nah. The real damage was done in 1971, with only the petrodollar advantage saving the dollar ever since... And since the Saudis are now openly talking about joining the BRICS, the dollar's time is officially done. Stick a fork in it.
I can't say how long it takes but I'm sure it has a lot to do with how fast China & Russia take to announce their new reserve currency.
reply
Gradually then suddenly
reply
Yeah, I should have written "a slow fiat death". Let's say China and Russia announce their new reserve currency and it displaces the dollar. My point is that Bitcoiners could be wrong on thinking that Bitcoin would replace that new reserve currency overnight. It's definitely > 0 probability
reply
Their new faux hard money currency will collapse faster than they ever thought possible. Hard money CBDC. Almost comical. The allies should start by dumping gold on the open market killing the monetary premium, then doing nothing to slow down the adoption of bitcoin, let it metastasize and watch it do what it always was going to.
reply
I think the Clintons were the ones who were worried about Dystopian futures.
reply
seems like we're witnessing the beginnings of dystopia in slow motion at the moment..
reply
Not solving the Blockchain Trilemma sooner so that Security, Scalability, and Decentralization can be reached soonest.
reply