So, remember 2015? The debt crisis that rocked Greece and Cyprus (banks closed, savers having to take haircut, capital control)? Needless to say, those debts have not been repaid (neither has any country solved the structural problem of welfare populism), but merely delayed!
And, on top of that, we are also hearing France and UK bonds hitting all-time highs. Japanese Yen carry trade blowing up.
So it is a fair bet to say that by 2030, we will see at least one developed economy having a Sri-Lanka/Pakistan/Argentina moment (things we thought only reserved for emerging markets).
Now, a critical point, as opposed to 2015, and as opposed to emerging markets is, in most developed economies, people have a fair bit of exposure to at least the basic idea of Bitcoin, i.e. there is such a thing. There are at least some exchanges/peer-to-peer setups, or even local Bitcoin meetups where people can buy.
So do you think when shit hits the fan, Bitcoin will be the escape valve for many? Or they will entirely lean on the Dollar/US treasury/Gold again?
In other words, assuming that I am measuring how far such a crisis can pump Bitcoin, are we at a critical juncture when the thought of acquiring Bitcoin will occur to people in such moments? Or will it be discarded as a risky and speculative bet that you should avoid all the more in moments of turbulence?
I think Bitcoiners will be vilified and scapegoated, which will put downward pressure on price for a while.
I doubt it. If the establishment tries to talk about bitcoin, it will attract a lot of attention and nocoiners will get more curious to understand. Once they understand, they will try to get in. From the establishment viewpoint, they will try to silence any mention of it, not blast the word from a megaphone. Attempts of bad publicity will backfire.
So the question is whether more commoners will discover it on their own when shit hits the fan.
They don't have to discuss the benefits to label Bitcoiners as tax dodgers, scammers, greater fools, parasites of various stripes. That will give them cover in a crisis to bring in punitive laws that target the UX of self-custody and herd people custodial solutions where they can be 6102'd.
That's ok. "Bitcoiners" is kinda gross anyway with all the fiat maxis in that group.