When it rains, it pours (#1420812, #1421250)
Apparently, Mr. Dalio addressed the WEF crowd and said the dollar is dying and central banks are buying all this gold
...and the "lacks evidence" portion is a tad ridiculous: most public figures (e.g., by Tether) lags by months, and if antiagonistic central banks (China, Russia) were buying in mass, you'd never know... except through price; China stopped reporting, Russia isn't. (And even if they were, nobody would believe the figures.)
The pace of Chinese gold buying since 2022 is more clearly visible in UK export data than in official figures from the People’s Bank of China, which appears to under-report totals:
A slightly less idiotic take is looking at the physical metal hoards themselves, e.g., London:
For a slightly faster readout, analysts look at HMRC’s overseas trade data. London is the world’s biggest gold trading hub, so the UK’s monthly non-monetary gold export figure is a proxy for central bank buying.
"...adjusted for price, UK gold exports have been in fairly steady decline for a year:""...adjusted for price, UK gold exports have been in fairly steady decline for a year:"
Azerbaijan (#942031) be like, gimme all that juuuuiiicy YELLOW STUFF... sure sure sure, let's buy gold equivalent to 1% of GDP in a single month. BELIEVABLE
They checked with some gold analysts at the London bullion association, which largely agreed: lower exports out of London, known central bankers (Poland, China) slowing down/stop buying.
"based on the data, maybe the sovereign rebalancing trade has run its course. As Rob Armstrong says, momentum-chasing seems to offer the most convincing explanation for gold’s strength in recent months.""based on the data, maybe the sovereign rebalancing trade has run its course. As Rob Armstrong says, momentum-chasing seems to offer the most convincing explanation for gold’s strength in recent months."
Whether all this rampant goldbuggery is rational is another question entirely — and as with any other form of religious fundamentalism, we’d prefer to avoid the argument.
OK, count me skeptical, why should I believe that winter is coming etc (#1420812)
archive: https://archive.md/Q6VcQ
Off topic, but did the FT really make a K-Pop Demon Hunters reference?
You and @Undisciplined can't take over soon enough!
Ok, boomer
I dunno? Explain to idiots like me...? (I have zeeero idea about K-Pop)
Also, we can't afford taking over The Economist and FT at the same time. Which do you prefer we go for?
'OK, count me skeptical, why should I believe that winter is coming etc.'
Skeptical or simply ignorant of the facts?
'Central banks, which were net sellers of gold for many years, flipped to net buyers in 2010 when they reassessed their risks following the financial crisis sparked by the American mortgage meltdown. Central banks picked up the pace of their gold purchases in 2022.
That is when the West sanctioned Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Central banks in countries that have strained relationships with the West, including China, have been shifting away from dollar-based assets into gold, which is beyond the reach of foreigners.
Others, including the National Bank of Poland, an aggressive gold buyer that on Tuesday approved another big purchase, seek to ensure the stability of their own currencies by adding assets without the same risks as sovereign debt.
“Central banks are buying gold not just purely for its price performance, but the role that it can play in foreign reserves,” said Juan Carlos Artigas, head of research for the World Gold Council. “Gold is very useful to hedge or diversify the reserves.”'
https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/gold-prices-5000-ounce-2026-67361c87
Clearly you have missed the unraveling of the US empires credibility and loss of the trade war with China.
Since you didn't notice, China now dominates global trade in manufactured goods and commodities.
China has been investing heavily in gold mining and in fact mining and refining of most high value and strategic commodities...so the World Gold Councils figures on central bank gold accumulation could be significantly lower than Chinas true gold reserves accumulation.
Investing in the mines and refining is a better investment than buying USTs.
So China now controls many strategic commodities such as refined rare earths which China is refusing to supply to any buyer who might route them to the US military.
Thus the US military is crippled- USA cannot fight any war of any scale and duration until it re establishes reliable independent supply of refined rare earths- and that will take at least a decade, probably more, maybe never due to the fucking massive cost of subsidising the refining process and the rapidly looming insolvency facing the US.
Many previous buyers of US government debt have stopped buying- the slack had been taken up by Japan and the UK, loyal subservient tribute states, but they are now facing their own insolvency.
Yes, the US empire is facing a rapid downward spiral as loss of its ability to print USD/UST debt endlessly becomes apparent. People will not take the risk anymore.
I think den is saying he is skeptical of gold/silver slowing down, at least that is how I read it.
Not how I read it although he does write in an annoying ambiguous manner a lot of the time.
After all in the linked post he argues that price rise is not due to central bank buying but purely retail, when the graph I have posted above shows that is clearly not true...the lead up to this current price rise was definitely stimulated in large part by central banks moving from USTs and into gold.
Would love to see him put his sats where his mouth is, wherever that is...
Everyone can do exactly that here :)
https://beta.predyx.com/market/gold-price-6000-before-may-2026-1769394325