Today, the Cato Institute published “Immigrants’ Recent Effects on Government Budgets: 1994–2023,” a study on the fiscal effects of immigrants—legal and illegal—that builds upon the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) fiscal effects model. The paper, which I coauthored with Michael Howard and Julián Salazar, is the first to analyze three decades of federal, state, and local government budgets to determine how immigrants affected the total US government debt and deficit.
In this paper, we wanted to accomplish two main things:
- Provide the first-ever assessment of the total net fiscal effect of all immigrants from 1994 to 2023, rather than a one-year snapshot or forward-looking projection like many other studies. We wanted a sufficiently long period to assess claims like those by White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, asserting that immigrants have already sucked us dry.
- Provide the clearest explanation for the mechanisms driving the fiscal effects of immigration on government budgets.
Immigrants Have Reduced the Deficit Every YearImmigrants Have Reduced the Deficit Every Year
Why the Average Person Is Fiscally PositiveWhy the Average Person Is Fiscally Positive
Immigrants Pay More Taxes, Receive Fewer BenefitsImmigrants Pay More Taxes, Receive Fewer Benefits
Immigrants Don’t Cause DeficitsImmigrants Don’t Cause Deficits
Concluding ThoughtsConcluding Thoughts
...read more at cato.org
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I think the steelman argument for immigration control/borders is that in a democracy or democratic republic there are some vulnerabilities that can be exploited.
Both of these over time produce resentment from native populations. You and I can look down our noses at these people but the reality remains that if you put yourself in the place of the native population it's not hard to see why there is resentment.
That said, one can also see why people would love to immigrate to the US. I think modernity has weakened us to thinking and speaking honestly about things like this. There is a fear of being name called. At this point there is a critical mass that does not care anymore.
I have my views but the idea that one can jump to the absolute without considering the effects is immature and foolish. This is what the debate feels like to me.
You can look at the uproar of Mexicans in Mexico city angry about wealthy US expats driving up their housing costs if one needs an example of white people being the immigrants. It's not just a racial thing. It's economic, political, and cultural.
The state complicates things like this. In a stateless society property rights would solve this issue. But... we don't live in this situation.
There are many people that come to the US and want to be a part of the American culture. The nation. The people. This doesn't mean they leave their own cultures behind but they want to respect the people they are joining. I know many people like this.
Its foolish to think that this is always the case though. Those for who borders are a huge issue might eggarate the issue but to pretend there isn't a set of risks and tradeoffs is also a skewed perspective.
I do tire of the open borders side as well. Many of these people were once in agreement with most Americans that we are open to new people but there needs to be a process.
Living in California I have heard the political debates around this topic for my entire life. The reality is that immigration reform was used to win elections. No one really wanted to fix the issue. The Democrats are hypocrites as they have been in both sides of this issue. Even Obama was in favor of borders and enforcing them.
What has happened is that a critical mass of Americans realize that the political system has no intention of finding a solution so they voted for a dude that said he would do something.
Critics can blame Trump for how it's being done but the reality is that what we are seeing now is the inevitable outcome of political control over land instead of natural law property rights. Politicians have made empty promises for decades and people are fed up. At least enough to sway elections that is.
Had the Democratic party actually worked with Reagan on immigration reform decades ago I do not think we would see what we are seeing now. It's clear to me that politics feeds on conflict. Not problem solving. Problems are what is needed for power to be surrendered to political figures. It's all incentives.
Sadly, I've come to the point where when I see results go the way TPTB want them to go, I tend to trust it less.
Not saying the results are wrong, but I am saying that before I accept them as truth, I'll need to dive into the methodology and the nuances therein.
There is probably a truth to it, however what is missing is the voting outcomes. Over that same timeframe the overton window has slid massively leftwards.
I do think the proper way to have "guest workers" (or whatever euphemism we choose for quasi-slaves) is to have an actually enforced 'guest worker' program. Which should include background checks, mandatory deportation for criminal offenses, electronic-only payment (income tax payment), no public entitlement programs, and no voting.
Its worth noting that none of this is new. Rome, during the end of the Republic had about 25% of the workforce as slaves....and exactly like our current situation, the influx of slaves provided a temporary boost to the economy. However it soon eroded the working class, eroded cultural cohesion, and set the stage for the rise of the emperors.
Who said that?
The title of the graph is "Immigrants pay more in taxes and receive fewer benefit" (which doesn't infer slavery but implies it...).
However I really don't believe that stat, I don't know if you've ever been to a big city public hospital, but the waiting rooms are completely chocked full of immigrants. I suspect they are cooking the books on public healthcare....