Over the last few weeks/months I have seen so many articles, analysis, and claims on how China has the US pinned down and how the trade war is over with the US taking a beating. Most of the arguments for this fall under the idea that the rare earths refining and permanent magnet manufacturing game is over. That the US, even with the billions it is pouring into the sector, cannot catch up and that alone decides the fate of the US. However, rare earths are good and all but only if you can use them particularly if you can leverage them for semiconductors. This is where the US has a stranglehold over the industry that most of the population does not have a clue about at all.
After Hurricane Helene hammered North Carolina in 2024 I was reading about the damage and destruction that the storm caused. During this I ran across a small city called Spruce Pine and how the destruction in this town could result in semiconductor supply chain shortages world wide. Over the next few months it became clear that the critical mine in Spruce Pine was able to get back up and running quicker than many had feared so the town and its mine slowly faded away until I stumbled across a YouTube video linked here.
So what is the deal with Spruce Pine? Why is it so critical to the entire world? How is it possible that it is more important than rare earths that we constantly see being brought up?
Quartz. That is what makes Spruce Pine so special.
Brief History Lesson
During WWII when Germany ran over France they were able to secure the Fontainebleau mine which at the time produced the worlds most pure quartz leading the Allies to scramble for new deposits to access. At the time the purity of the quartz was critical for lenses for rifles and all the other military equipment. In the US two inferior ones were used while in the UK they found Lochaline which while initially still inferior to Fontainebleau ended up producing more pure quartz than even Fontainebleau.
Two years after the end of WWII the US found the deposit of hyper pure quartz that now powers the world. In the 80+ years since no where in the world has a deposit like this been found. Your typical quartz you would find as sand is composed of silica and other minerals. The purity we are talking about here based on the silica. So how pure is this deposit of quartz? Well, Fontainebleau is 99.7% pure, Lochaline is 99.8% pure, Spruce Pine is 99.9999% pure blowing everyone else out of the water.
Hyper Quartz Use
In order to create the silicon wafers that the entire chip industry relies on silica crucibles that come from Spruce Pine. The reason for this is that when they melt the silicon to create the rod, which wafers are cut off of, the "melt" mixes with whatever it is in contact with ie the crucible. Since you cannot afford any contaminate in your silicon rod the crucible has to be as pure as possible to try and blunt the deformities in the wafers. That is where hyper quartz plays it role for being so pure.
The kicker is that each crucible only has a single use due to the process destroying it. Even crazier is that 20-30% of the silicon rod's created will be failures with everything being perfect.
Geologic Phenomena
This quartz deposit was formed 380 to 400 million years ago when the African and North American continents collided pushing rocks miles below the surface where two key things happened. The rocks were melted and baked for about 100 million years where they slowly slowly cooled allowing for huge crystals to be created as well as there was no water contamination. Water brings with it contamination affecting the purity of the quartz so without it the quartz were able to develop almost impurity free.
Due to a combination of the African continent pulling away and hundreds of millions of years of erosion the deposit went from up to 15 miles underground to near the surface were it could be accessed. No where else in the world in decades of looking has anyone found any sort of thing like this. In the YouTube video the speaker compares it to the Vredefort Impact Structure in South Africa, the largest and oldest confirmed asteroid impact crater on Earth. This asteroid caused uplift (bringing the gold closer to the surface) in the Witwatersand Basin where roughly 1/4 of all gold mined in the history of the world has come from.
Baring nothing short of a miracle in the distant future there is no replacement no other location or alternative process. The circumstances for the Spruce Pine quartz creation was a crazy long shot but it happened. This is more rare than lightening striking twice in the same location so for now the US has a complete lock on the ability to develop cutting edge semiconductors.
Geopolitical Ramifications
China has made it clear they plan on taking over the semiconductor industry just like they have with so many other industries. Semiconductors are a huge part of why China has been ramping up talks and threats to invade Taiwan as they want access to the cutting edge machines that Taiwan has. Even if China is able to invade and secure all the machines from blowing up (they do have charges in them after all to blow them up in an invasion scenario to prevent China from accessing them and also serving as a deterrent). The US only has to halt the shipment of the quartz to stop the production of the highest quality chips. Factor in the growing plant operation within the US and suddenly China making a move on Taiwan makes less and less sense.
People can talk about rare earths all they want however if you don't even have a foundation the rare earths are moot. The US building up its rare earths supply chain and partnering with others only further puts China in a bind that it can't get out of. For those who think the trade war is over..... Sure it is if you are saying the US won and China can't do anything. The US has spent the better part of a decade now building stockpiles of rare earths for military applications. Another reason why if China were to suddenly cut them off the US has stock piles aka room to run and two more manufacturing lines are being brought on now.
Thanks for taking the time to write this up. I remember all the talk about Spruce Pine, but as with so many things, as soon as everybody else stopped talking about it, I stopped thinking about it.
It seems to me that people always figure out ways around choke points if they need to. Wasn't Germany refining gasoline from coal during WWII? Probably the best case scenario is a sort of begrudging ongoing trade like we seem to have now, where nations talk a big game, but it's more trouble than it's worth to bring everything in house.
You can use what they call inferior quartz for regular run of the mill chips but for the high end cutting edge you gotta have better quartz or the failure rate is to high
how many nuclear reactors are left in Germany?
Will they figure out a way out of this choke point?
Already solved: buy from Norway. haha
The entire EU relies on Norway for natural gas and crude oil
Norway should join EU so they can stop exporting gas and oil to Eurocrats
let them freeze to death
Hey the US sends plenty of LNG to Germany and others as well hahaha
I am curious to see if any of the nuclear plants in Germany try to do what the US is doing and restart em. When you do that you essentially replace all the guts anyways so a ton of the power plant is brand new.
USA cannot build new nuclear plants at a cost competitive rate so they are patching up old dangerous and outdated ones.
Tragic empire in decline and on its last days before implosion.
The US has been supplier #1 since the Ukranians in service of the Brits blew up Northstream.
I think it's in Norway's benefit to only have the economic agreements. I lived through the transition from Economic Union to Political Union in the EU, and honestly, it hasn't gotten better for the net payers. Brexit mess shows that you don't want to go in and then leave again - that's a self-own.
EEU or economic euro union
the original name was Common Market then Euro Community
Basically the implementation of the Maastricht Treaty, when it went from European Economic Community to European Union.
I think that the ultimate problem that we don't have a solution for (not even under Bitcoin standard) is the use of public funds for subsidizing industries (doesn't have to be brrr, can also be with proceeds of taxation.)
Do you have an idea about how much of your tax money goes to subsidies? Which companies it subsidizes? If I learned anything from the Elmo thing and the shit they published: the swamp is real.
This is imho a war-hawk argument. Taiwan doesn't manufacture their own chip building machines. Both Taiwan and China are part of the supply chain for these, but that chain is global. FWIW, the US doesn't have a supply chain for this either. You'll have to invade and control the entire world.
China's best bet is diplomacy and trade, just as it has been for the US. The idea that a global semiconductor industry can be nationalized at scale and serve industry outside of NatSec AND be competitive is imho wishful thinking. But of course I can be wrong about that. Ask the Soviets, or in fact China, about how well nationalizing the means of production goes outside of state procurement, though.
Anduril predicts China will start their 'invasion' of Taiwan starting in 2027
In my house, Palmer Luckey is a hero, end of story
I'm sure that as a DoD contractor they have a lot at stake on that one. I generally distrust anything that comes out of corporate that improves their bottom line. I don't doubt they believe it and I don't want to disqualify their insight though. They may very well be right.
FWIW, when I say "war-hawk argument", I don't just mean those in the US. Those are relatively benign, compared to other "forces", like the Brits.
Anduril is not part of the big 5: boeing, lockheed, northrop, raytheon, general dynamics
most of their R and D is privately funded, not taxpayer money
I think that Anduril is addressing an important segment in the defense industry. Private or public funding doesn't make any difference in this.
I do worry about personal defense though, because we know (or used to know? or thought we knew?) that we need parity between the government and the individual, especially when it comes to arms? I'm still on team gattling gun.
is pepper spray illegal in Europe?
Depends on where. Some variants are actually recommended for self defense in some places. But I mean home defense. Can we defend our home against a drone swarm?
Hit it with an EMPPPPPPPP
Faraday cage?
Will a Faraday cage repel the Moors?
China definitely does not want to invade Taiwan.
What they do want is a negotiated transition.
They understand that is only possible if you have the military sabre rattling credibility - capacity to potentially use force.
Trump has already signaled a negotiated retreat is likely by reshoring chip production.
The agreement to a staged return of Taiwan to the mainland will be one of Trumps most significant bargaining chips in April, if he wants to do a deal.
And he needs a deal because without those rare earths the US military industrial complex is crippled for the next decade despite whatever nonsense @Cje95 fabricates.
Gotta love how you just claim I am making stuff up when I addressed things you were going to say in this post so maybe take a moment and read the whole thing. The last paragraph addresses your claims directly and takes them apart. The US has stock piled heavy rare earths for the defense industry for 10 years. A cut off wouldn't have immediate or mid range effects on the defense sector.
China has it published by their government that they will use force and invade Taiwan to bring them into the fold. That's the Chinese government saying it not me, not America, not the West, its China. They even use their 2005 Anti-Secession Law as justification.
We sold $11 billion in arms to Taiwan in December and are currently finalizing another significant deal before the Xi/Trump meeting which is pretty odd to do if what you are saying holds any sort of water. The defense industry in the US is a huge employer for manufacturing at the moment so the idea of Trump turning his back on manufacturing when he is in the middle of trying to kick start it is a very out of touch take.
Reshoring, which you are trying to give to Trump and thus shows how little you know, was funded by the CHIPS and Science Act that my Committee spearheaded. So I kinda know this one pretty well and ya see that was a Biden era priority and was passed in 2022. Trump didn't do anything the Biden admin had allotted most of the money.
Even if the US wanted Taiwan to go back and fold into China they don't want to so the idea is moot. It is funny you think Trump would strike a deal like that with Xi blow up his entire end of conflicts legacy he has been chasing. To think Trump would want to nuke his legacy over Taiwan is a terrible terrible take.
Plus lets throw in how China also just hollowed out its entire military leadership and now they have no one with any sort of combat experience in charge.... that's called how to fail 101. You can't replace experience with textbooks.
P.S. I recently suggested you might check this podcast and gain a different perspective on China.
I guess you didn't have time to look at it...
https://www.youtube.com/live/RfnlAWc76sY
Chinas biggest asset in this whole contest is the woeful lack of understanding of China by nearly all US observers.
Gotta love the completely unsubstantiated claims you make.
Like USA having a stockpile of rare earths.
Substantiate or admit this is pure bullshit.
Likewise where is the evidence China has said they will invade Taiwan?
Like Trump has said he may use force to seize Greenland or that he will impose tariffs on European nations who sent troops to Greenland or his promise to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours?
China claims Taiwan territory and clearly is posturing that that could use force- but they absolutely do not want to use force and I suggest will not use force- to use force would be a failure.
To regain Taiwan by negotiation is what they want.
It would both avoid bloodshed of citizens and show that they are now of such status that they can.
Taking Taiwan by force would be a PR failure for China and a win for USA. It is not going to happen.
Trump will agree to a staged transition of power in Taiwan and this could be agreed as soon as April.
The concessions he will get would be substantial and given the fragile state of US finances and empire in general that has got to be a win for USA.
USA has known since before Trump2 that Taiwan will be regained by China.
Trump is a great salesman for the US military industrial complex.
$11 billion sales to a government that is militarily and monetarily subservient to USA and has been since the 1950s when it was formed using gold stolen from the people of China.
Biden knew the score but Trump is more open about USAs retreat from global empire and rationalisation toward a more regional hegemony over the Americas.
Taiwan for Greenland is the deal- take it or leave it, you are in decline and know it and moving your chip production away from Taiwan because you know its time is up.
Neon gas and the thousands of other essential strategic supply chains are falling or have already fallen to China.
Is it a war hawk comment when they keep staging mock invasions and running invasion drills? When your (China's) government policy is reunification and adding force on the table that's not being a war hawk that's just a plain fact.
Also you know ASML has two massive facilities in Taiwan right? In Linkou the plant is about to go live that produces reticle handlers and YieldStar metrology systems and in Tainan they have their e-beam inspection systems and solutions R&D and production all of these are critical?
China has stated it wants to use the solar playbook and imo they did succeed there and crush everyone. Not sure were you got the nationalizing thing because that word isnt mentioned anywhere. The US building its own supply chain isnt nationalization and China would never claim it to be nationalized. They would just do what they did with solar.
Also when did you crank up the AI reply cost?! I dont remember it ever being 45
Yes. But my point is will the free trade supply chain survive that? It may not. Also afaik ASML does all machinery assembly in NL and flies it out for reassembly locally? Maybe they changed that for Taiwan though!
Last night: #1430258. It's a test for a week and I will subsidize non-clanker comments.
In regards to the ASML part from what I have found/read what they produce in Taiwan they keep there unless assembly is elsewhere.
Due to China free trade is in an odd place given the subsidy they will provide. I don’t like the US for instance doing it or taking stakes in MP Materials, Lithium America, or USA Rare Earths but as someone who saw through my dad what China does with rare earths (he owned shares in a company called Molycorp that used to own MP’s Eagle Pass mine till China crashed the market to bankrupt them). It’s hard to figure out how to level the field without the government getting involved to try and level it if that makes sense.
Ahhh okay I saw this last night was that you or did I miss something lmao! I was so confused seeing that total
That's a good optimization.
Yes, this is very hard. What do you think about the TikTok construct though? There the premise is basically: if you stop interfering, we give you business (in theory, lol)
It was solomon. I was on the upzap side haha
We bots at the CCP believe power comes out of the barrel of a gun, pardner.
See you are packing and gunning for @denlillaapans dominance of the home board.
Why should those boycotting PoW participation in the LN dominate the narrative?
WW3 has begun...just the plebs don't know yet.
https://m.stacker.news/129739
What about the neon gas produced in Ukraines east that is essential to the lasers that cut the silicon wafers? It is 90% of the global supply and is now in Russian (Chinas) hands.
Modern warfare and hi tech is reliant upon multiple complex supply chains and your Quartz mine is just one of thousands upon which they depend.
You think holding one strategic mine gives you the upper hand? Delusional.
It is the combination of multiple supply chains and processing capabilities that results in strategic dominance.
US Exceptionalists will pump the hopium because they fear that accepting the truth would further hasten the collapse of their global military posturing.
Accept it- you are done as a super power and in April Trump will agree to a road map for Taiwan to be reintegrated with the mainland over the next 5 years.
You couldn't hold Afghanistan against the Teleban FFS, you not gonna hold Taiwan much longer.
You can't enforce your petrodollar sanctions on China because to do so would collapse the remnants of the US economy.